10 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Spaeri vs Torpedo Kutaisi Erovnuli Liga prediction & result

Spaeri Stadium, Tbilisi
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Spaeri 3-3 Torpedo Kutaisi.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Spaeri, 26% draw, 46% Torpedo Kutaisi — fair odds of 3.57, 3.85 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Torpedo Kutaisi at 46% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Spaeri4%Draw91%Torpedo Kutaisi5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Lasha Kokhreidze
6'
Tornike Askurava
27'
40'
⚽Komnen Andrićassist: Virgile Pinson
45+1'
⚽Komnen Andrićassist: Giorgi Arabidze
🔁Billy Jibrilout: Zurab Golubiani
46'
🔁nika chagunavaout: Sienda Matenjva
61'
64'
🔁luka kupravaout: Luka·Latsabidze
🔁Tamaz Tsetskhladzeout: d giorgi tsetskhladze
67'
68'
Matej Simic
72'
🔁Komnen Andrićout: diego deisadze
72'
🔁Dino Skorupout: Nodar Lominadze
80'
🔁Virgile Pinsonout: Tsotne Nadaraia
⚽Zurab Golubiani
81'
88'
diego deisadze
d giorgi tsetskhladze
90+6'
90+6'
90+7'
⚽Giorgi Arabidze
⚽Gocha tsirdava
90+10'
90+11'

Match stats — Spaeri vs Torpedo Kutaisi

49%Possession51%
9Shots15
5On target11
1Corners8

Line-ups

Spaeri 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. PutkaradzeG
  • 22N. ChagunavaD
  • 3L. KachibaiaD
  • 31G. BunturiD
  • 14G. SamkharadzeD
  • 10Tamaz TsetskhladzeM
  • 6T. AskuravaM
  • 26B. JibrilF
  • 19G. TsirdavaF
  • 7S. GegiadzeD
  • 17L. KokhreidzeF
Substitutes
  • 30Z. BasilashviliF
  • 23N. ChomakhidzeG
  • 4G. GrigalashviliM
  • 25R. InjgiaF
  • 20N. KentchadzeD
  • 13S. MathenjwaD
  • 5T. TsalughelashviliM
  • 9G. TsetskhladzeF
  • 8S. MaisuradzeD
Coach: A. Kighuradze
Torpedo Kutaisi 4-2-3-1
  • 1O. GoshadzeG
  • 15L. KupravaD
  • 22D. BukiaD
  • 4M. ŠimićD
  • 20D. SkorupM
  • 8M. ItrakM
  • 7V. MamuchashviliM
  • 11G. ArabidzeM
  • 14Felipe PiresF
  • 39V. PinsonF
  • 9K. AndrićF
Substitutes
  • 40A. ShulaiaM
  • 19D. PertaiaM
  • 5T. NadaraiaD
  • 17N. LominadzeM
  • 24L. LatsabidzeD
  • 38S. KopalianiG
  • 13G. KatkovD
  • 25G. GergedavaM
  • 35D. DeisadzeM
Coach: D. Schuster

Form going into Spaeri vs Torpedo Kutaisi

Spaeri

  • L1-4Dila21 September 2026
  • L0-1away to FC Iberia 199913 September 2026
  • D1-1Rustavi9 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Meshakhte5 September 2026

Torpedo Kutaisi

  • L2-3away to Dinamo Batumi20 September 2026
  • W3-2Samgurali14 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Gagra10 September 2026
  • D1-1Dinamo Tbilisi6 September 2026

What these results say

  • Spaeri did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Spaeri conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Spaeri scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Torpedo Kutaisi scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Torpedo Kutaisi conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Torpedo Kutaisi.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Erovnuli Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Spaeri28511123746-926
6Torpedo Kutaisi2891094637+937

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Spaeri vs Torpedo Kutaisi

  • 10 October 2026Spaeri 3–3 Torpedo KutaisiErovnuli Liga
  • 22 June 2026Torpedo Kutaisi 0–0 SpaeriErovnuli Liga
  • 1 May 2026Spaeri 1–1 Torpedo KutaisiErovnuli Liga
  • 28 February 2026Torpedo Kutaisi 1–2 SpaeriErovnuli Liga
  • 27 June 2025Spaeri 0–0 Torpedo KutaisiSuper Cup
  • 7 September 2023Spaeri 0–2 Torpedo KutaisiDavid Kipiani Cup

Leading scorers: Spaeri and Torpedo Kutaisi

Spaeri

No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 37 league goals as a side.

Torpedo Kutaisi

GoalsAssists

  • K. Andrić82
  • G. Arabidze58
  • Felipe Pires30

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.