Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Goianiense 1-1 Sport Recife.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Atletico Goianiense, 28% draw, 30% Sport Recife — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Goianiense at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Paulo VítorG
- 2EwerthonD
- 3J. BarretoD
- 4Adriano MartinsD
- 6Guilherme LopesD
- 5Leandro VilelaM
- 8PeixotoM
- 7Bruno JoséM
- 10NetinhoM
- 11Soares GeovanyM
- 9João PedroF
- 22Isac Niltton Romão Da SilvaF
- 20Guilherme MarquesM
- 16YuriD
- 18Henrique Freitas AlvesM
- 15GebsonD
- 17CristianoM
- 21MatheusinhoM
- 19MarronyF
- 14NatãD
- 26Thiago CoutoG
- 27ClaudinhoD
- 5Marcelo BenevenutoD
- 3Marcelo AjulD
- 96EdsonD
- 29Willian OliveiraM
- 7Patrick de PaulaM
- 30Chrystian BarlettaM
- 8Juan AlanoM
- 10C. de PenaM
- 19Neto PessoaF
- 20D. HernándezF
- 75A. MaronF
- 40Matheus MirandaD
- 21BrennoG
- 9PerottiF
- 68AugustoD
- 77DuduF
- 25ClaysonM
- 6BielM
Form going into Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
- L1-3away to CRB7 October 2026
- W2-0America Mineiro3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Goias26 September 2026
- L0-1away to São Bernardo19 September 2026
Sport Recife
- W2-1São Bernardo6 October 2026
- W2-1away to Athletic Club MG1 October 2026
- L1-3away to Nautico Recife26 September 2026
- W2-1Juventude19 September 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Goianiense scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Atletico Goianiense had two goals or fewer.
- Sport Recife scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sport Recife conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Sport Recife had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 41 | 31 | +10 | 53 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 45 | 35 | +10 | 51 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife
- 11 October 2026Atletico Goianiense 1–1 Sport RecifeSerie B
- 19 June 2026Sport Recife 1–1 Atletico GoianienseSerie B
- 11 November 2023Sport Recife 0–0 Atletico GoianienseSerie B
- 15 July 2023Atletico Goianiense 3–1 Sport RecifeSerie B
- 31 October 2021Sport Recife 2–0 Atletico GoianienseSerie A
- 7 July 2021Atletico Goianiense 1–1 Sport RecifeSerie A
Leading scorers: Atletico Goianiense and Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
GoalsAssists
- Gustavo Coutinho130
Sport Recife
GoalsAssists
- Perotti121
- Chrystian Barletta114
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.