Juventude vs São Bernardo Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Juventude 2-2 São Bernardo.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Juventude, 25% draw, 23% São Bernardo — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Juventude at 52% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Juventude vs São Bernardo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 93JandreiG
- 34Rodrigo SamD
- 4MessiasD
- 47Marcos PauloD
- 2Raí RamosM
- 75RaíM
- 29Gabriel PiresM
- 16Diogo BarbosaM
- 11Fábio LimaF
- 25Alisson SafiraF
- 10Marcos PauloF
- 9Alan KardecF
- 97Gabriel PinheiroD
- 17M. CastroF
- 70Juan ChristianF
- 5Luan GonçalvesD
- 8Lucas MineiroM
- 26I. LyD
- 22NathanD
- 12Pedro RochaG
- 1Alex AlvesG
- 2Rodrigo FerreiraD
- 77MarcãoD
- 35JemersonD
- 97AugustoD
- 6ParáD
- 31Lucas FernandesM
- 14Lucas LimaM
- 26EduardoM
- 29PedrinhoM
- 9Felipe GarciaF
- 27EchaporãF
- 42HyoranM
- 7LucasF
- 11Pedro VitorF
- 17RomissonM
- 44Caio Belmonte GarcezM
- 16João Pedro Constancio Dos SantosD
- 30BreninhoM
- 21Hugo SanchesD
Form going into Juventude vs São Bernardo
Juventude
- W2-0away to Ponte Preta7 October 2026
- W3-0Operario-PR2 October 2026
- W1-0away to America Mineiro28 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sport Recife19 September 2026
São Bernardo
- L1-2away to Sport Recife6 October 2026
- W3-1CRB2 October 2026
- D0-0away to Novorizontino25 September 2026
- W1-0Atletico Goianiense19 September 2026
What these results say
- Juventude scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Juventude won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Juventude kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- São Bernardo scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Juventude | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 39 | 21 | +18 | 60 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 46 | 36 | +10 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Juventude vs São Bernardo
- 11 October 2026Juventude 2–2 São BernardoSerie B
- 21 June 2026São Bernardo 0–1 JuventudeSerie B
Leading scorers: Juventude and São Bernardo
Juventude
GoalsAssists
- Raí74
São Bernardo
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 46 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.