Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng Super League prediction & result
Final score: Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-1 Shandong Luneng.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Chongqing Tongliang Long, 27% draw, 38% Shandong Luneng — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shandong Luneng at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng
Line-ups
- 1Yao HaoyangG
- 37Wei SuoweiD
- 6Jin PengxiangD
- 33LucaoD
- 3Zhang YingkaiD
- 26He XiaoqiangD
- 9G. CimpanuM
- 10I. AmadouM
- 16Zhang ZhixiongM
- 18Liang WeipengM
- 11L. DimataF
- 25Yerzat YerjetG
- 31Wu ZitongG
- 24Liu MingshiD
- 27Wu YongqiangM
- 21Liu JialeM
- 19Du YuezhengF
- 7Xiang YuwangF
- 17Ng Yu-HeiF
- 15Chen ChunxinM
- 14Wang DaleiG
- 3Peng XiaoD
- 23P. AlvaroD
- 33Gao ZhunyiD
- 7Xie WennengM
- 38Memet ImranM
- 8Guilherme MadrugaM
- 11Liu YangM
- 28Mijit MewlanF
- 10V. QazaishviliF
- 29Chen PuF
- 32Sun QihangG
- 1Yu JinyongG
- 36Liu QiweiG
- 35Huang ZhengyuD
- 5Zheng ZhengD
- 15Shi SongchenD
- 22Y. LiM
- 37Chen ZeshiM
- 34Yin JiaxiM
Form going into Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng
Chongqing Tongliang Long
- L1-3Shanghai Shenhua6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Henan Jianye29 August 2026
- L0-1Dalian Zhixing23 August 2026
- D0-0away to Qingdao Youth Island14 August 2026
Shandong Luneng
- D1-1Sichuan Jiuniu5 September 2026
- W3-2away to Shanghai Shenhua28 August 2026
- L0-2away to Qingdao Youth Island22 August 2026
- W3-1Qingdao Jonoon14 August 2026
What these results say
- Chongqing Tongliang Long did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Chongqing Tongliang Long conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Chongqing Tongliang Long had two goals or fewer.
- Shandong Luneng conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Shandong Luneng scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for Shandong Luneng.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 27 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 32 |
| 4 | Shandong Luneng | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 44 | +3 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng
- 11 October 2026Chongqing Tongliang Long 1–1 Shandong LunengSuper League
- 16 May 2026Shandong Luneng 3–1 Chongqing Tongliang LongSuper League
- 22 June 2024Chongqing Tongliang Long 3–6 Shandong LunengFA Cup
Leading scorers: Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shandong Luneng
Chongqing Tongliang Long
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Shandong Luneng
GoalsAssists
- Cryzan166
- Zeca94
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.