Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Nautico Recife 0-2 Vila Nova.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Nautico Recife, 28% draw, 35% Vila Nova — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nautico Recife at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1MurielG
- 2ArnaldoD
- 15Léo ÍndioD
- 46Gustavo HenriqueD
- 23Igor FernandesD
- 7ViníciusM
- 8WendersonM
- 41SamuelM
- 9Paulo SérgioM
- 19Kaua Almeida da CostaF
- 10Jean CarlosF
- 5AuremirM
- 27Luiz FelipeM
- 11Victor AndradeF
- 16Luiz CláudioF
- 34WandersonD
- 60Luiz PauloD
- 72DerekF
- 55G. GuruceagaG
- 93Reginaldo LopesD
- 1Helton LeiteG
- 22HaynerD
- 4Douglas MendesD
- 23Jonathan CostaD
- 13Willian FormigaD
- 5João VieiraM
- 15DuduM
- 17Everton GaldinoM
- 10Marquinhos GabrielM
- 99JandersonM
- 49DellatorreF
- 16Igor CariúsD
- 18EnzoM
- 20Nathan CamargoM
- 9LincolnF
- 8Willian MaranhãoM
- 29DalbersonG
- 14AndersonD
- 31DodôM
- 70Emerson UrsoF
Form going into Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
- L0-2Novorizontino8 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fortaleza EC3 October 2026
- W3-1Sport Recife26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Cuiaba22 September 2026
Vila Nova
- D0-0Cuiaba7 October 2026
- W1-0away to Botafogo SP3 October 2026
- W2-0Londrina25 September 2026
- W1-0America Mineiro18 September 2026
What these results say
- Nautico Recife conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Nautico Recife failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Vila Nova went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Vila Nova kept a clean sheet in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Vila Nova had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nautico Recife | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 42 |
| 1 | Vila Nova | 33 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 46 | 31 | +15 | 61 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova
- 11 October 2026Nautico Recife 0–2 Vila NovaSerie B
- 20 June 2026Vila Nova 4–3 Nautico RecifeSerie B
- 9 March 2023Nautico Recife 2–1 Vila NovaCopa Do Brasil
- 20 August 2022Nautico Recife 1–2 Vila NovaSerie B
- 6 May 2022Vila Nova 2–0 Nautico RecifeSerie B
- 11 September 2021Vila Nova 1–0 Nautico RecifeSerie B
Leading scorers: Nautico Recife and Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
GoalsAssists
- Vinícius93
Vila Nova
GoalsAssists
- Janderson88
- André Luís82
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.