Cuiaba vs Avai Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Cuiaba 0-1 Avai.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Cuiaba, 27% draw, 21% Avai — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cuiaba at 52% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cuiaba vs Avai
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1João CarlosG
- 13João BassoD
- 5CalebeD
- 4Vitor MendesD
- 2Igor InocêncioM
- 30RaulM
- 20David MiguelM
- 36LorenzoM
- 41KauanM
- 77Jean DiasM
- 90Fábio GomesF
- 11ElielF
- 14EricD
- 91LuisãoD
- 97Luiz OtávioM
- 96Pedro HenriqueF
- 27Rodrigo FarofaF
- 29Vinicius PeixotoF
- 70Wesley DiasM
- 26João VitorM
- 94Bruno FerreiraG
- 22João Vitor Cardoso de SouzaD
- 3AllysonD
- 38Jefferson MacielD
- 36DGD
- 77Zé RicardoM
- 14Daniel PenhaM
- 95WendersonM
- 8Luiz HenriqueM
- 10Jean LucasM
- 19Caio Suassuna Gonçalves FerreiraF
- 66QuaresmaD
- 5Del PiageM
- 18HyanM
- 1Igor BohnG
- 7Léo ChúF
- 9Léo GamalhoF
- 70GasparF
- 35PedrãoD
- 25Paulo VitorM
Form going into Cuiaba vs Avai
Cuiaba
- D0-0away to Vila Nova7 October 2026
- W2-0Ponte Preta3 October 2026
- L0-3away to CRB27 September 2026
- W3-0Nautico Recife22 September 2026
Avai
- W2-1Londrina7 October 2026
- L0-1Ceara3 October 2026
- L0-3away to Criciuma27 September 2026
- L1-2away to Goias20 September 2026
What these results say
- Cuiaba kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Avai conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Avai failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Avai had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Cuiaba | 33 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 47 |
| 17 | Avai | 33 | 10 | 6 | 17 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cuiaba vs Avai
- 11 October 2026Cuiaba 0–1 AvaiSerie B
- 21 June 2026Avai 1–0 CuiabaSerie B
- 10 August 2025Avai 2–0 CuiabaSerie B
- 11 April 2025Cuiaba 2–2 AvaiSerie B
- 27 October 2022Cuiaba 1–0 AvaiSerie A
- 3 July 2022Avai 1–2 CuiabaSerie A
Leading scorers: Cuiaba and Avai
Cuiaba
GoalsAssists
- Kauan63
Avai
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.