Botafogo SP
vs
Ceara
Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Botafogo SP 1-0 Ceara.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Botafogo SP, 28% draw, 44% Ceara — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Botafogo SP 1.09, Ceara 1.50.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Model insights: Botafogo SP vs Ceara
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ceara at 44% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Botafogo SP vs Ceara
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Victor SouzaG
- 2JonathanD
- 3EricsonD
- 4VilarD
- 22Gabriel InocêncioM
- 8Everton MorelliM
- 16Matheus SalesM
- 6Patrick BreyM
- 10Rafael GavaF
- 9HygorF
- 7KelvinF
- 26Felipe VieiraD
- 17Guilherme QueirózF
- 21Jadson Alves de LimaF
- 20Yuri Felipe Santos da ConceiçãoM
- 18Arthur CaíkeF
- 34BadaróD
- 27DarlanD
- 29Thiago HenriqueM
- 31Pedro HenriqueD
- 1RichardG
- 18JúlioD
- 4Luiz OtávioD
- 13Luiz OtávioD
- 12SanchezD
- 81Joao GabrielM
- 25Vinicius ZanoceloM
- 60Enzo LodovicoM
- 8Matheus AraújoM
- 40RichardM
- 73Saulo MineiroF
- 7Giovanni PavaniM
- 16Rian SantanaF
- 26RichardsonM
- 11N. FerreiraF
- 33ÉderD
- 2Rafael RamosD
- 23Caíque FrançaG
- 99LuccaF
- 77Lenny LobatoF
Form going into Botafogo SP vs Ceara
Botafogo SP
- W2-1away to Operario-PR7 October 2026
- L0-1Vila Nova3 October 2026
- W2-0Ponte Preta29 September 2026
- D1-1away to Athletic Club MG19 September 2026
Ceara
- W1-0Criciuma8 October 2026
- W1-0away to Avai3 October 2026
- D2-2away to Operario-PR26 September 2026
- W2-1Novorizontino18 September 2026
What these results say
- Botafogo SP scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Botafogo SP conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Botafogo SP had two goals or fewer.
- Ceara went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Ceara scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Ceara won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 41 |
| 15 | Ceara | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Botafogo SP vs Ceara
- 13 October 2026Botafogo SP 1–0 CearaSerie B
- 20 June 2026Ceara 0–1 Botafogo SPSerie B
- 13 November 2024Botafogo SP 1–4 CearaSerie B
- 26 July 2024Ceara 4–1 Botafogo SPSerie B
- 4 November 2023Botafogo SP 2–2 CearaSerie B
- 8 July 2023Ceara 3–0 Botafogo SPSerie B
Leading scorers: Botafogo SP and Ceara
Botafogo SP
GoalsAssists
- Everton Morelli92
- Hygor80
Ceara
GoalsAssists
- Melk75
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.09 goals for Botafogo SP and 1.50 for Ceara; the game produced 1 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Hygor 74' (Botafogo SP).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ceara the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Botafogo SP against 1.50 for Ceara. Botafogo SP's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.22 for Ceara.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.