Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Jaguares 3-2 Deportes Tolima.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Jaguares, 30% draw, 41% Deportes Tolima — fair odds of 3.45, 3.33 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportes Tolima at 41% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12F. MosqueraG
- 4J. FrancoD
- 6J. LoveraD
- 29C. HenaoD
- 18L. JiménezD
- 5R. ColpaM
- 21R. BustamanteM
- 7W. De La RosaM
- 10C. ÁlvarezM
- 9J. MejiaM
- 11A. RenteríaF
- 2A. AlfonsoM
- 16E. BeltránF
- 24S. CubidesF
- 27F. GraciaM
- 26Elio LópezG
- 17D. LópezF
- 28D. ZuluagaM
- 32Jose YanezM
- 34Cristian Castro
- 1Neto VolpiG
- 33J. MosqueraD
- 14H. MartínezD
- 2A. AnguloD
- 80B. RoviraD
- 30S. P. Barbosa GomezD
- 8E. ValenciaM
- 20J. HernándezM
- 32S. GuzmánM
- 24A. ParraF
- 15Sergio AguayoF
- 28E. LópezF
- 5J. MeraD
- 34Gustavo Moreno
- 11J. ValenciaF
- 13M. OrtegaG
- 16V. ReyesM
- 9L. SandovalF
- 29Néifer SánchezF
Form going into Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima
Jaguares
- L0-2away to Águilas Doradas3 October 2026
- L1-2Alianza Valledupar27 September 2026
- L1-2away to Independiente Medellin22 September 2026
- D2-2Fortaleza FC11 September 2026
Deportes Tolima
- D0-0away to Atletico Nacional8 October 2026
- D0-0Chico3 October 2026
- D2-2away to Fortaleza FC27 September 2026
- D1-1America de Cali20 September 2026
What these results say
- Jaguares did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Jaguares conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Jaguares scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Deportes Tolima went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Deportes Tolima did not win any of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Deportes Tolima had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jaguares | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 10 |
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima
- 11 October 2026Jaguares 3–2 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 28 March 2026Deportes Tolima 3–1 JaguaresPrimera A
- 19 August 2024Jaguares 0–2 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 15 February 2024Deportes Tolima 2–0 JaguaresPrimera A
- 6 October 2023Jaguares 0–1 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 26 April 2023Deportes Tolima 1–1 JaguaresPrimera A
Leading scorers: Jaguares and Deportes Tolima
Jaguares
GoalsAssists
- A. Rentería103
Deportes Tolima
GoalsAssists
- A. Parra84
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.