Cagliari vs Juventus Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Cagliari 1-1 Juventus.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Cagliari, 30% draw, 46% Juventus — fair odds of 4.17, 3.33 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Juventus at 46% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cagliari vs Juventus
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1E. CaprileG
- 2Zé PedroD
- 26Y. MinaD
- 15J. RodríguezD
- 33A. ObertD
- 8M. AdopoM
- 6H. WinksM
- 4A. RomanoM
- 79Y. MassolinM
- 70D. MaldiniM
- 31P. MendyF
- 39A. FaderaF
- 10J. FazziniM
- 32Ivan Stoyanov SulevM
- 21R. GagliardiniM
- 9Kevin CarlosF
- 22R. KoflerD
- 27J. LitetaM
- 18M'Bala NzolaF
- 23B. RadunovićG
- 25G. VicarioG
- 15P. KaluluD
- 3BremerD
- 26J. LucumíD
- 2Z. ÇelikD
- 29P. SarrM
- 12Douglas LuizM
- 7Francisco ConceiçãoM
- 22W. McKennieM
- 31N. GonzálezM
- 9R. Kolo MuaniF
- 11E. ZhegrovaF
- 27N. WoltemadeF
- 4F. GattiD
- 24D. RuganiD
- 23C. PinsoglioG
- 8T. KoopmeinersM
- 6L. KellyD
- 20A. CambiasoD
- 32J. CabalD
Form going into Cagliari vs Juventus
Cagliari
- W1-0away to Udinese19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Atalanta12 September 2026
- W1-0Lecce7 September 2026
- L0-1Inter30 August 2026
Juventus
- W2-0Atalanta20 September 2026
- L2-3away to Sassuolo13 September 2026
- D1-1AC Milan6 September 2026
- W2-0Parma29 August 2026
What these results say
- Cagliari won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Cagliari scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Cagliari had two goals or fewer.
- Juventus scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Juventus had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 13 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cagliari vs Juventus
- 11 October 2026Cagliari 1–1 JuventusSerie A
- 17 January 2026Cagliari 1–0 JuventusSerie A
- 29 November 2025Juventus 2–1 CagliariSerie A
- 23 February 2025Cagliari 0–1 JuventusSerie A
- 17 December 2024Juventus 4–0 CagliariCoppa Italia
- 6 October 2024Juventus 1–1 CagliariSerie A
Leading scorers: Cagliari and Juventus
Cagliari
GoalsAssists
- D. Maldini40
Juventus
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.