11 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Sassuolo vs AC Milan Serie A prediction & result

Reggio Emilia
Referee: Francesco Fourneau
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Sassuolo 1-1 AC Milan.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Sassuolo, 27% draw, 47% AC Milan — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AC Milan at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sassuolo3%Draw92%AC Milan5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
🔁Matteo Gabbiaout: Koni De Winter
🔁Fedde Leysenout: Cas Odenthal
26'
41'
Pervis Estupinan
45+3'
Koni De Winter
45'
🔁Pervis Estupinanout: Luka Modrić
🔁Sebastiano Espositoout: Kieron Bowie
60'
🔁Vasilije Adzicout: Kristian Thorstvedt
60'
63'
⚽Adrien Rabiotassist: Luka Modrić
⚽Cas Odenthal
68'
78'
🔁Yunus Musahout: Ardon Jashari
78'
🔁Christian Pulisicout: Alphadjo Cissè
🔁Ignace Van der Bremptout: Simone Cinquegrano
79'
🔁Nemanja Matićout: Luca Lipani
79'
85'
🔁Samuel Chukwuezeout: Omari Hutchinson
87'
Gonçalo Ramos
90+1'
Strahinja Pavlovic
Kristian Thorstvedt
90+4'

Match stats — Sassuolo vs AC Milan

41%Possession59%
10Shots11
4On target6
3Corners5
1.27xG1.23

Goals against chances

Sassuolo1 from 1.27 xGabout what the chances were worth
AC Milan1 from 1.23 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sassuolo 4-3-3
  • 49A. MurićG
  • 20I. Van der BremptD
  • 15D. Ćaleta-CarD
  • 16F. LeysenD
  • 3J. DoigD
  • 17Vasilije AdžićM
  • 18N. MatićM
  • 50D. BakolaM
  • 10D. BerardiF
  • 94S. EspositoF
  • 45A. LaurientéF
Substitutes
  • 6S. WalukiewiczD
  • 7C. VolpatoM
  • 80S. TuratiG
  • 42K. ThorstvedtM
  • 55I. SulemanaM
  • 19L. SkjellerupF
  • 12G. SatalinoG
  • 26C. OdenthalD
  • 33Rafael ObradorD
Coach: A. Aquilani
AC Milan 4-4-1-1
  • 16M. MaignanG
  • 34Mario GilaD
  • 46M. GabbiaD
  • 31S. PavlovićD
  • 2P. EstupiñánD
  • 21S. ChukwuezeM
  • 80Y. MusahM
  • 12A. RabiotM
  • 22Diego MoreiraM
  • 11C. PulišićM
  • 9Gonçalo RamosF
Substitutes
  • 73F. CamardaF
  • 41L. P. BouyerG
  • 33D. BartesaghiD
  • 96L. TorrianiG
  • 70A. CissèM
  • 23F. TomoriD
  • 42F. TerraccianoD
  • 14L. ModrićM
  • 8R. Loftus-CheekM
Coach: Ruben Amorim

Form going into Sassuolo vs AC Milan

Sassuolo

  • L1-2away to Monza18 September 2026
  • W3-2Juventus13 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Bologna6 September 2026
  • W2-1Torino29 August 2026

AC Milan

  • W3-0Lecce20 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Lazio12 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Juventus6 September 2026
  • W2-0Venezia28 August 2026

What these results say

  • Sassuolo scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Sassuolo conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Sassuolo had three goals or more.
  • AC Milan went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • AC Milan scored in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Sassuolo6222101008
5AC Milan6330115+612

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sassuolo vs AC Milan

  • 11 October 2026Sassuolo 1–1 AC MilanSerie A
  • 3 May 2026Sassuolo 2–0 AC MilanSerie A
  • 14 December 2025AC Milan 2–2 SassuoloSerie A
  • 3 December 2024AC Milan 6–1 SassuoloCoppa Italia
  • 14 April 2024Sassuolo 3–3 AC MilanSerie A
  • 30 December 2023AC Milan 1–0 SassuoloSerie A

The full Sassuolo vs AC Milan record →

Leading scorers: Sassuolo and AC Milan

Sassuolo

GoalsAssists

  • Vasilije Adžić31

AC Milan

GoalsAssists

  • A. Rabiot32
  • Diego Moreira30

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.