11 October 2026, 01:00 UTC

Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara
Referee: Marco Antonio Ortiz Nava
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Atlas 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Atlas, 27% draw, 41% Guadalajara Chivas — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Guadalajara Chivas at 41% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atlas4%Draw92%Guadalajara Chivas4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Juan Sánchez
26'
30'
Richard Ledezma
41'
Daniel Aguirre
45'
🔁Diego Campilloout: Carlos Hernandez
⚽Kevin Zenonassist: Paulo Ramirez
52'
Florián Monzón
63'
🔁Paulo Ramirezout: Edgar Zaldívar
65'
66'
🔁Leonel Calderón Oviedoout: Kevin Castañeda
66'
🔁Ricardo Marínout: Hugo Camberos
66'
🔁Richard Ledezmaout: Santiago Sandoval
70'
•Santiago Sandoval
76'
⚽Ángel Sepúlveda (pen)
🔁Elías Montielout: Aldo Rocha
82'
84'
Kevin Castañeda
86'
⚽Ángel Sepúlvedaassist: Brian Gutierrez
🔁Ryan Mmaeeout: Sergio Hernández
87'
89'
Santiago Sandoval
90+1'
🔁Roberto Alvaradoout: Efrain Alvarez
90+8'
Kevin Castañeda

Match stats — Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas

44%Possession56%
6Shots12
3On target5
7Corners7
1.74xG2.12

Goals against chances

Atlas1 from 1.74 xGless than the chances were worth
Guadalajara Chivas1 from 2.12 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atlas 3-4-2-1
  • 12C. VargasG
  • 19A. FríasD
  • 44J. PurataD
  • 16M. ValenzuelaD
  • 3J. SánchezM
  • 18E. MontielM
  • 15Paulo RamírezM
  • 8R. MmaeeM
  • 20K. ZenónM
  • 10Luís EstevesM
  • 9F. MonzónF
Substitutes
  • 58A. GonzálezF
  • 28M. CapassoD
  • 13G. AguirreD
  • 23S. HernándezM
  • 27V. RíosM
  • 203J. MartínF
  • 26A. RochaM
  • 5J. RodríguezD
  • 22A. SánchezG
Coach: H. Crespo
Guadalajara Chivas 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. RangelG
  • 23D. AguirreD
  • 16L. ReyD
  • 3D. CampilloD
  • 37R. LedezmaM
  • 28R. GonzálezM
  • 11B. GutiérrezM
  • 182L. CalderonM
  • 25R. AlvaradoM
  • 17R. MarínM
  • 9Á. SepúlvedaF
Substitutes
  • 192C. HernandezD
  • 57J. HernándezF
  • 2J. CastilloD
  • 19K. CastañedaM
  • 33J. CarrilloM
  • 14H. CamberosM
  • 59C. IndaM
  • 30Santiago SandovalM
  • 13Óscar WhalleyG
Coach: G. Milito

Form going into Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas

Atlas

  • W3-2away to Club Tijuana26 September 2026
  • D1-1Pumas UNAM19 September 2026
  • L2-5away to Toluca12 September 2026
  • D1-1Atlante FC6 September 2026

Guadalajara Chivas

  • L0-2Club Queretaro26 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Club America20 September 2026
  • W3-0Pumas UNAM14 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Atletico San Luis5 September 2026

What these results say

  • Atlas scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Atlas conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Atlas.
  • Guadalajara Chivas scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Guadalajara Chivas had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Atlas115331718-118
4Guadalajara Chivas115421811+719

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas

  • 11 October 2026Atlas 1–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
  • 30 March 2026Atlas 0–1 Guadalajara ChivasFriendlies Clubs
  • 8 March 2026Atlas 1–2 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
  • 4 January 2026Atlas 0–0 Guadalajara ChivasFriendlies Clubs
  • 26 October 2025Guadalajara Chivas 4–1 AtlasLiga MX
  • 20 April 2025Atlas 1–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX

The full Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas record →

Leading scorers: Atlas and Guadalajara Chivas

Atlas

GoalsAssists

  • Luís Esteves41

Guadalajara Chivas

No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.