Club America vs Monterrey Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Club America 1-1 Monterrey.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Club America, 22% draw, 20% Monterrey — fair odds of 1.72, 4.55 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club America at 58% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Club America vs Monterrey
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. MalagónG
- 34D. EspinozaD
- 14S. BuenoD
- 15S. RamosD
- 26C. BorjaD
- 28É. SánchezM
- 3I. ReyesM
- 10A. ZendejasM
- 23Raphael VeigaM
- 7B. RodríguezM
- 9H. MartínF
- 1E. AndradaG
- 2R. ChávezD
- 4V. GuzmánD
- 13C. SalcedoD
- 3G. ArteagaD
- 18Cesar Garza CantuM
- 9D. RossiM
- 8Óliver TorresM
- 25O. PinedaM
- 17J. CoronaM
- 99H. CuypersF
- 22L. CárdenasG
- 5F. AmbrízM
- 14É. AguirreM
- 19A. AcevesD
- 11Iker Jareth Fimbres OchoaM
- 7L. OcamposM
- 194C. ReyesM
- 21L. ReyesD
- 30J. RodríguezM
Form going into Club America vs Monterrey
Club America
- W4-2away to Necaxa28 September 2026
- D2-2Guadalajara Chivas20 September 2026
- L3-4away to Cruz Azul13 September 2026
- W2-0Puebla30 August 2026
Monterrey
- L2-4away to Atlante FC26 September 2026
- W1-0Cruz Azul20 September 2026
- D0-0Tigres UANL13 September 2026
- L1-3Atletico San Luis31 August 2026
What these results say
- Club America scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Club America conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Club America had three goals or more.
- Monterrey failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Monterrey scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 21 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Club America vs Monterrey
- 11 October 2026Club America 1–1 MonterreyLiga MX
- 3 September 2026Club America 2–2 MonterreyLeagues Cup
- 8 February 2026Club America 1–0 MonterreyLiga MX
- 29 November 2025Club America 2–1 MonterreyLiga MX
- 27 November 2025Monterrey 2–0 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 21 September 2025Monterrey 2–2 Club AmericaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Club America and Monterrey
Club America
GoalsAssists
- H. Martín62
- M. Borja40
Monterrey
GoalsAssists
- L. Ocampos51
- D. Rossi33
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.