Lecce vs Bologna Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Lecce 1-2 Bologna.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Lecce, 31% draw, 39% Bologna — fair odds of 3.33, 3.23 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bologna at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lecce vs Bologna
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30W. FalconeG
- 17Danilo VeigaD
- 5J. SiebertD
- 44Tiago GabrielD
- 25A. GalloD
- 29L. CoulibalyM
- 20I. IlićM
- 14Y. MalehM
- 50S. PierottiF
- 22Paco EstebanF
- 7A. Ahmed FatahF
- 2A. DembéléD
- 79O. NgomM
- 11K. N’DriF
- 3C. NdabaD
- 99Joël MonteiroF
- 77M. KabaM
- 18G. JeanD
- 1M. BleveG
- 32A. BorbeiG
- 25M. PessinaG
- 36M. DarmianD
- 16N. CasaleD
- 14T. HeggemD
- 20N. ZorteaM
- 19L. FergusonM
- 4T. PobegaM
- 33Juan MirandaM
- 7R. OrsoliniM
- 28N. CambiaghiM
- 91R. PiccoliF
- 41M. VitíkD
- 23R. AlhassaneD
- 8M. AmondarainM
- 10F. BernardeschiF
- 1Ł. SkorupskiG
- 6N. MoroM
- 18M. LibraM
- 72U. HapponenG
- 5E. HellandD
Form going into Lecce vs Bologna
Lecce
- L0-3away to AC Milan20 September 2026
- W3-2Monza13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Cagliari7 September 2026
- L0-4AS Roma31 August 2026
Bologna
- D1-1Torino19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Napoli13 September 2026
- D2-2Sassuolo6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Atalanta31 August 2026
What these results say
- Lecce conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Lecce failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Lecce failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Bologna did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Bologna conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Bologna had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lecce vs Bologna
- 11 October 2026Lecce 1–2 BolognaSerie A
- 12 April 2026Bologna 2–0 LecceSerie A
- 28 September 2025Lecce 2–2 BolognaSerie A
- 9 February 2025Lecce 0–0 BolognaSerie A
- 2 November 2024Bologna 1–0 LecceSerie A
- 11 February 2024Bologna 4–0 LecceSerie A
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.