Como vs AS Roma Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Como 0-0 AS Roma.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Como, 27% draw, 45% AS Roma — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AS Roma at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Como vs AS Roma
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. ButezG
- 27Yan CoutoD
- 4Jacobo Ramón NaverosD
- 99T. ChalobahD
- 16KaikiD
- 5M. PerroneM
- 7L. da CunhaM
- 11Assane DiaoM
- 10N. PazM
- 8M. CaqueretM
- 9T. DouvikasF
- 3Álex ValleD
- 28I. SmolčićD
- 97Robert SánchezG
- 17Jesús RodríguezF
- 21S. RicciM
- 6Luis MillaM
- 22M. VigoritoG
- 20M. BaturinaM
- 30M. LiberaliM
- 95P. GolliniG
- 23G. ManciniD
- 5E. NdickaD
- 22HermosoD
- 20N. MolinaM
- 15M. de RoonM
- 17M. KonéM
- 43WesleyM
- 21P. DybalaM
- 7L. PellegriniM
- 14D. MalenF
- 9S. CastroF
- 70G. De MarziG
- 87D. GhilardiD
- 77E. LulliD
- 61N. PisilliM
- 2D. RenschD
- 18M. SouléF
- 26L. BalerdiD
- 32D. VásquezG
Form going into Como vs AS Roma
Como
- L0-2away to Frosinone20 September 2026
- W2-1Parma14 September 2026
- W4-1away to Genoa4 September 2026
- W2-1away to Napoli30 August 2026
AS Roma
- D2-2Inter19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Torino14 September 2026
- W2-1Atalanta5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Lecce31 August 2026
What these results say
- Como conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Como won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Como scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- AS Roma went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- AS Roma scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- AS Roma won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 11 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Como vs AS Roma
- 11 October 2026Como 0–0 AS RomaSerie A
- 15 March 2026Como 2–1 AS RomaSerie A
- 15 December 2025AS Roma 1–0 ComoSerie A
- 2 March 2025AS Roma 2–1 ComoSerie A
- 15 December 2024Como 2–0 AS RomaSerie A
Leading scorers: Como and AS Roma
Como
GoalsAssists
- M. Baturina21
AS Roma
GoalsAssists
- D. Malen60
- M. Soulé21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.