Chico vs Cucuta Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Chico 0-1 Cucuta.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Chico, 29% draw, 32% Cucuta — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chico at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chico vs Cucuta
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1D. AgudeloG
- 24C. MosqueraD
- 5J. AlomíaD
- 4J. MenaD
- 14C. BlancoD
- 17E. SarriaM
- 8S. SalazarM
- 6J. DíazM
- 16S. MeraM
- 22Alejandro MayaF
- 21J. PimentelF
- 10Y. CabreraM
- 29Luis CarabalíF
- 7F. CifuentesF
- 15S. NavarroD
- 19J. Pimentel Betancourt
- 2D. PolancoD
- 11D. RamírezM
- 20sebastian viverosM
- 12B. ZapataG
- 12F. AbadíaG
- 33S. TámaraD
- 2H. LópesD
- 4J. QuiñónesD
- 30B. MontañoD
- 5V. MejíaM
- 20D. GelvezM
- 10L. BerdugoM
- 77NenecoM
- 11G. TorresM
- 9J. PeraltaF
- 3D. CalcaterraD
- 21M. CarabalíF
- 8J. CeballosM
- 27M. DuarteD
- 1J. RamírezG
- 29L. RíosM
- 32J. AgudeloF
- 15Santiago VasquezM
- 26Y. AboníaD
Form going into Chico vs Cucuta
Chico
- D0-0away to Deportes Tolima3 October 2026
- W3-0Deportivo Pasto25 September 2026
- L0-3away to Millonarios19 September 2026
- L1-2Alianza Valledupar16 September 2026
Cucuta
- W4-0Deportivo Pereira4 October 2026
- W2-1Llaneros26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Deportivo Cali19 September 2026
- L1-2Millonarios14 September 2026
What these results say
- Chico failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Chico had three goals or more.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Cucuta had three goals or more.
- Cucuta scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Cucuta conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Chico | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 12 |
| 9 | Cucuta | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chico vs Cucuta
- 11 October 2026Chico 0–1 CucutaPrimera A
- 28 March 2026Cucuta 1–0 ChicoPrimera A
- 9 August 2022Cucuta 1–2 ChicoPrimera B
- 27 September 2020Chico 0–2 CucutaPrimera A
- 2 July 2017Cucuta 3–0 ChicoPrimera B
- 4 June 2017Cucuta 4–2 ChicoPrimera B
Leading scorers: Chico and Cucuta
Chico
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Cucuta
GoalsAssists
- J. Peralta92
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.