11 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Lazio vs Monza Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Referee: Guiseppe Collu
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Lazio 3-1 Monza.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Lazio, 26% draw, 24% Monza — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lazio at 50% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lazio99%Draw1%Monza0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Nuno Tavaresassist: Tijjani Noslin
3'
13'
Andrea Carboni
⚽Gustav Isaksenassist: Tijjani Noslin
23'
35'
Lorenzo Lucchesi
36'
🔁Cyril Ngongeout: Saba Goglichidze
Danilho Doekhi
45+2'
45'
🔁Andrea Carboniout: Yvan Maye
45'
🔁Exequiel Zeballosout: Dany Mota
45'
🔁Michael Folorunshoout: Foe Ondoa
46'
⚽Saba Goglichidzeassist: Dany Mota
🔁Danilho Doekhiout: Diogo Leite
53'
Oliver Provstgaard
55'
🔁Davide Frattesiout: Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
60'
🔁Oliver Provstgaardout: Josip Šutalo
60'
Diogo Leite
68'
70'
🔁Ricardo Mangasout: Adam Bakoune
🔁Nuno Tavaresout: Alfonso Pedraza
75'
🔁Tijjani Noslinout: Andrea Pinamonti
75'
79'
Ivan Juric
⚽Andrea Pinamontiassist: Alfonso Pedraza
88'

Match stats — Lazio vs Monza

66%Possession34%
17Shots14
7On target6
7Corners6
1.59xG1.91

Goals against chances

Lazio3 from 1.59 xGmore than the chances were worth
Monza1 from 1.91 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lazio 4-3-3
  • 35C. MandasG
  • 15R. Floriani MussoliniD
  • 5D. DoekhiD
  • 25O. ProvstgaardD
  • 17Nuno TavaresD
  • 16D. FrattesiM
  • 21R. BelahyaneM
  • 24K. TaylorM
  • 11G. IsaksenF
  • 14T. NoslinF
  • 10M. ZaccagniF
Substitutes
  • 37J. ŠutaloD
  • 63F. SerraF
  • 47D. RenzettiG
  • 28A. PrzyborekM
  • 9A. PinamontiF
  • 23PedrazaD
  • 40E. MottaG
  • 2Diogo LeiteD
  • 29M. LazzariM
Coach: G. Gattuso
Monza 3-4-2-1
  • 1N. TörnqvistG
  • 60E. KouadioD
  • 3L. LucchesiD
  • 44A. CarboniD
  • 19S. BirindelliM
  • 90M. FolorunshoM
  • 14E. AkinsanmiroM
  • 7Ricardo MangasM
  • 16C. NgongeM
  • 22E. ZeballosM
  • 9Gustavo VarelaF
Substitutes
  • 21L. ColomboM
  • 20D. ThiamG
  • 28A. ColpaniM
  • 10P. CutroneF
  • 2S. GoglichidzeD
  • 5Y. MayeD
  • 47Dany MotaF
  • 80M. MoutM
  • 8M. OndoaM
Coach: I. Juric

Form going into Lazio vs Monza

Lazio

  • W2-0away to Venezia19 September 2026
  • D2-2AC Milan12 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Udinese7 September 2026
  • W1-0Genoa30 August 2026

Monza

  • W2-1Sassuolo18 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Lecce13 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Parma6 September 2026
  • L2-3Udinese29 August 2026

What these results say

  • Lazio went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Lazio scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Lazio won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Monza scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Monza conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Monza.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Lazio6510114+716
16Monza6114915-64

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lazio vs Monza

  • 11 October 2026Lazio 3–1 MonzaSerie A
  • 9 February 2025Lazio 5–1 MonzaSerie A
  • 10 November 2024Monza 0–1 LazioSerie A
  • 4 May 2024Monza 2–2 LazioSerie A
  • 23 September 2023Lazio 1–1 MonzaSerie A
  • 2 April 2023Monza 0–2 LazioSerie A

The full Lazio vs Monza record →

Leading scorers: Lazio and Monza

Lazio

GoalsAssists

  • D. Frattesi30
  • T. Noslin22

Monza

GoalsAssists

  • Gustavo Varela40

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.