Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor 1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 Muğlaspor.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Fatih Karagümrük, 28% draw, 22% Muğlaspor — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fatih Karagümrük at 50% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. SilvestriG
- 25M. SarıkayaD
- 4D. BiraschiD
- 28A. ÇınarD
- 33Ç. KurukalıpD
- 19Y. OnogoM
- 20M. SiopisM
- 26Traore AhmedM
- 5E. AkbabaM
- 22R. CivelekM
- 9C. TosunF
- 21Candan BaskaleM
- 14Marius Tresor DohM
- 41J. EsenM
- 27Muhammed KadiogluD
- 7Baris KalayciF
- 17Tarık Buğra KalpaklıF
- 3A. NukanD
- 6R. YalçınM
- 11T. ÇukurF
- 17E. KılıçarslanG
- 15O. NahırcıD
- 88Yiğit FidanD
- 44L. Del PinoD
- 28A. EnginM
- 21J. ÇelhakaM
- 23A. GünerenM
- 5O. MaturM
- 11M. DiarraF
- 99Y. UzunogluF
- 9P. YıldırımF
- 27I. SissokoF
- 13K. OsundinaF
- 53Alihan KazmazD
- 91İ. FuratF
- 31Arel EkinciG
- 22B. CeylanD
- 7D. CamajF
- 20B. BulutM
- 3A. BarakD
Form going into Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor
Fatih Karagümrük
- W2-0away to Esenler Erokspor19 September 2026
- D1-1Manisa F.K.13 September 2026
- L3-4away to Batman Petrolspor6 September 2026
Muğlaspor
- D2-2Iğdır FK18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sivasspor13 September 2026
- D2-2Vanspor FK6 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Fatih Karagümrük | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Muğlaspor | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor
- 11 October 2026Fatih Karagümrük 1–1 Muğlaspor1. Lig
Leading scorers: Fatih Karagümrük and Muğlaspor
Fatih Karagümrük
GoalsAssists
- A. Pešić52
Muğlaspor
GoalsAssists
- Y. Uzunoglu41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.