Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969 1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: Bursaspor 1-2 Mardin 1969.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Bursaspor, 29% draw, 22% Mardin 1969 — fair odds of 2.04, 3.45 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bursaspor at 49% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 98K. MatisliG
- 18Z. YavruD
- 24A. BabacanD
- 5Emirhan BaşyiğitD
- 93B. GökD
- 42L. BakerM
- 6J. ElitimM
- 80I. ŠaranićM
- 9E. GültekinM
- 73A. BoutrahM
- 14K. ỊheanachọF
- 34E. AkcanM
- 52T. AydoğanM
- 27T. BayramovD
- 20B. BaşyiğitF
- 77R. BerişbekD
- 4E. ErsoyD
- 81A. GeldiF
- 39A. KıvançG
- 66H. MaldarD
- 1E. KardeşlerG
- 27K. AlıcıD
- 25M. ŞengülD
- 15U. GezerD
- 3N. YardımcıD
- 91T. TeklićM
- 16A. KabakM
- 42B. AlhassanM
- 10Z. DimitrovM
- 9O. KayodeF
- 8Đ. DenićF
- 29Ö. KahveciG
- 33E. TaşdemirD
- 77D. TaşkanF
- 47M. WilksF
- 45O. YıldırımF
- 7Ş. ÇetinM
- 19A. ÜlükF
- 64B. DoğanD
- 11B. BalatM
Form going into Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969
Bursaspor
- W2-1away to Batman Petrolspor19 September 2026
- D2-2Esenler Erokspor13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Manisa F.K.7 September 2026
Mardin 1969
- L0-1Kayserispor20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Iğdır FK13 September 2026
- W1-0Bodrum FK7 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bursaspor | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 19 |
| 5 | Mardin 1969 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969
- 11 October 2026Bursaspor 1–2 Mardin 19691. Lig
- 4 April 2026Bursaspor 2–0 Mardin 19692. Lig
- 6 December 2025Mardin 1969 1–2 Bursaspor2. Lig
Leading scorers: Bursaspor and Mardin 1969
Bursaspor
GoalsAssists
- K. Ịheanachọ122
Mardin 1969
GoalsAssists
- T. Teklić31
- O. Kayode31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.