Bandırmaspor
vs
Sivasspor
1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: Bandırmaspor 1-1 Sivasspor.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Bandırmaspor, 31% draw, 22% Sivasspor — fair odds of 2.13, 3.23 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Bandırmaspor 1.32, Sivasspor 0.73.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Model insights: Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bandırmaspor at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16A. AlkanG
- 77H. BilgiçD
- 14Y. KocatürkD
- 34Enes AydınD
- 6Lucas LimaD
- 92R. MulumbaM
- 17Emirhan AyhanM
- 23K. DonertasM
- 20E. ÇinemreM
- 11T. KehindeM
- 90Recep Yalın DilekF
- 19Yasin MidilicD
- 21E. ÖzbekM
- 22A. ÜlgenD
- 27Dame SeckF
- 86B. BekaroğluD
- 99F. BekleviçG
- 3A. BilerD
- 9G. BrunoF
- 7M. GençM
- 1G. BakırbaşG
- 26M. YıldırımD
- 4M. ÇelikD
- 34T. TuzlacikD
- 77Y. KefkirD
- 66Oguzhan AksoyM
- 20M. MohammedM
- 28S. KavrazlıM
- 30E. CeesayM
- 27V. EthemiM
- 9R. ManajF
- 90M. AlbayrakD
- 53Y. BaynazogluG
- 91Osman BaşkuyuD
- 99Yilmaz CinF
- 17C. DuoduF
- 19E. GökayF
- 11B. KapacakM
- 74Kadir Taylan KoparanG
- 43Eymen YurdcuM
Form going into Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor
Bandırmaspor
- W2-0away to Vanspor FK9 October 2026
- L0-1Ümraniyespor18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sarıyer11 September 2026
- W6-0Boluspor5 September 2026
Sivasspor
- W4-1Pendikspor9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Keçiörengücü19 September 2026
- D1-1Muğlaspor13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Antalyaspor6 September 2026
What these results say
- Bandırmaspor scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Bandırmaspor had two goals or fewer.
- Sivasspor went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Sivasspor scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sivasspor conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Bandırmaspor | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 14 |
| 11 | Sivasspor | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bandırmaspor vs Sivasspor
- 13 October 2026Bandırmaspor 1–1 Sivasspor1. Lig
- 2 May 2026Bandırmaspor 1–0 Sivasspor1. Lig
- 27 December 2025Sivasspor 2–0 Bandırmaspor1. Lig
- 9 February 2022Bandırmaspor 2–4 SivassporTürkiye Kupası
- 7 May 2017Sivasspor 3–0 Bandırmaspor1. Lig
- 17 December 2016Bandırmaspor 0–1 Sivasspor1. Lig
Leading scorers: Bandırmaspor and Sivasspor
Bandırmaspor
GoalsAssists
- G. Bruno40
- A. Badji33
Sivasspor
GoalsAssists
- R. Manaj82
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.32 goals for Bandırmaspor and 0.73 for Sivasspor; the game produced 1 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Cihat Celik 66' (Sivasspor), Enes Aydın 83' (Bandırmaspor).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bandırmaspor the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Bandırmaspor against 0.73 for Sivasspor. Bandırmaspor's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.53 for Sivasspor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.