Stuttgart II
vs
Hoffenheim II
3. Liga prediction & result
Final score: Stuttgart II 3-2 Hoffenheim II.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Stuttgart II, 25% draw, 32% Hoffenheim II — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Stuttgart II 1.86, Hoffenheim II 1.52.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More 3. Liga predictions
Model insights: Stuttgart II vs Hoffenheim II
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stuttgart II at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Stuttgart II vs Hoffenheim II
Line-ups
- 1Jerik von der FelsenG
- 45L. StergiouD
- 29D. NothnagelD
- 13Tim KöhlerD
- 24Joyeux Masanka BungiD
- 18J. LuersM
- 31V. StangeM
- 7L. PennaM
- 27Jarzinho Ataide Adriano de Nascimento MalangaM
- 11Oliver RölkeM
- 39E. RedzepiF
- 40P. ReinhardtD
- 37David PreuD
- 30J. MajchrzakF
- 9T. van der LeijF
- 10N. SessaM
- 22J. BockG
- 6A. GroißD
- 4Maximilian Tobias HerwerthD
- 17A. JanjicD
- 34N. BiedermannG
- 15Matthew mooreD
- 3Sean DulicD
- 6V. LässigD
- 13Tristan SprangerD
- 16L. EngelnsM
- 8Diren DağdevirenM
- 17B. MakandaM
- 10Y. B. Zor MuhammedM
- 20Juan Tiago Esteban PollerM
- 11J. FieldsF
- 21T. HildmannD
- 36J. DedicF
- 26K. ČížekM
- 23Alex HonajzerM
- 44Maxime Ndong PendaD
- 40Pistrol SantinoD
- 47Maximilian TheuerM
- 27T. TrautnerG
- 18L. WagenbachF
Form going into Stuttgart II vs Hoffenheim II
Stuttgart II
- D1-1away to SV Meppen10 October 2026
- D3-3SSV Jahn Regensburg19 September 2026
- L2-3away to Hansa Rostock16 September 2026
- L1-2Preußen Münster13 September 2026
Hoffenheim II
- L2-3away to MSV Duisburg10 October 2026
- W1-0SV Meppen19 September 2026
- W2-1away to FC Ingolstadt 0416 September 2026
- D2-2Fortuna Köln13 September 2026
What these results say
- Stuttgart II did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Stuttgart II scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Stuttgart II conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Hoffenheim II scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Hoffenheim II conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Hoffenheim II had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Stuttgart II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | Hoffenheim II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Stuttgart II vs Hoffenheim II
- 13 October 2026Stuttgart II 3–2 Hoffenheim II3. Liga
- 15 March 2026Stuttgart II 1–0 Hoffenheim II3. Liga
- 5 October 2025Hoffenheim II 1–3 Stuttgart II3. Liga
- 18 May 2024Stuttgart II 2–0 Hoffenheim IIRegionalliga - SudWest
- 12 November 2023Hoffenheim II 1–1 Stuttgart IIRegionalliga - SudWest
- 3 March 2023Hoffenheim II 2–2 Stuttgart IIRegionalliga - SudWest
Leading scorers: Stuttgart II and Hoffenheim II
Stuttgart II
No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Hoffenheim II
GoalsAssists
- B. Makanda10
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.86 goals for Stuttgart II and 1.52 for Hoffenheim II; the game produced 3 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Lauri Lukas Penna 7' (Stuttgart II), Enis Redzepi 9' (Stuttgart II), Leonidas Stergiou 36' (Hoffenheim II), Tristan Spranger 68' (Hoffenheim II), Tim van der Leij 73' (Stuttgart II).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stuttgart II the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Stuttgart II against 1.52 for Hoffenheim II. Stuttgart II's attack/defence rating is 0.56/2.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/2.04 for Hoffenheim II.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.