Sarıyer
vs
Bodrum FK
1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: Sarıyer 1-4 Bodrum FK.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Sarıyer, 31% draw, 36% Bodrum FK — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Sarıyer 1.06, Bodrum FK 1.14.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Model insights: Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bodrum FK at 36% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13I. ŠehićG
- 77C. KarayelD
- 88C. OsmanpaşaD
- 4E. DikmenD
- 5E. KorkmazoğluD
- 8Marcos SilvaM
- 14T. ErgülM
- 93M. ThiamM
- 10E. KaracaM
- 11E. KaradağM
- 90E. EzeF
- 1F. AkyüzG
- 7B. AliciM
- 24K. ArslanD
- 3J. AttamahD
- 53A. Biyogo PokoM
- 17D. DavasM
- 23Ü. ErgünD
- 41F. GedikF
- 9B. KörF
- 1Diogo SousaG
- 77B. YavuzayD
- 5A. AjetiD
- 4A. YılmazD
- 23F. ApaydınD
- 20Yusuf SertkayaM
- 6J. de Sousa Moreira CruzM
- 11E. BilselM
- 82B. BaÅkanM
- 10Fernando AndradeM
- 26V. AboubakarF
- 52Devrim SahinF
- 32B. TosunG
- 68I. TarimD
- 80R. ProvidenceF
- 14F. LoshajM
- 75E. KaplanD
- 30Elvir GashijaniF
- 8M. ErdilmanM
- 19Berkay AslanF
Form going into Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK
Sarıyer
- D1-1away to Ümraniyespor9 October 2026
- W2-1Boluspor19 September 2026
- D1-1Bandırmaspor11 September 2026
- L0-3away to Keçiörengücü5 September 2026
Bodrum FK
- L0-2Keçiörengücü9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Pendikspor20 September 2026
- W4-0Batman Petrolspor12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Mardin 19697 September 2026
What these results say
- Sarıyer conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sarıyer failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sarıyer scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Bodrum FK failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Bodrum FK conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Bodrum FK had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sarıyer | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 15 |
| 13 | Bodrum FK | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sarıyer vs Bodrum FK
- 13 October 2026Sarıyer 1–4 Bodrum FK1. Lig
- 2 May 2026Bodrum FK 0–1 Sarıyer1. Lig
- 27 December 2025Sarıyer 1–0 Bodrum FK1. Lig
- 5 March 2022Bodrum FK 3–0 Sarıyer2. Lig
- 31 October 2021Sarıyer 1–2 Bodrum FK2. Lig
- 17 March 2019Sarıyer 3–1 Bodrum FK2. Lig
Leading scorers: Sarıyer and Bodrum FK
Sarıyer
GoalsAssists
- B. Kör41
Bodrum FK
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.06 goals for Sarıyer and 1.14 for Bodrum FK; the game produced 1 and 4.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Yusuf Sertkaya 7' (Bodrum FK), Vincent Aboubakar 15' (Bodrum FK), Vincent Aboubakar 23' (Bodrum FK), Berkay Aslan 75' (Bodrum FK), Dogan Can Davas 81' (Sarıyer).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bodrum FK the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Sarıyer against 1.14 for Bodrum FK. Sarıyer's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.25 for Bodrum FK.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.