Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Beşiktaş 2-1 Kocaelispor.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Beşiktaş, 28% draw, 19% Kocaelispor — fair odds of 1.89, 3.57 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Beşiktaş at 53% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Alexander NübelG
- 62Amir MurilloD
- 35Tiago DjalóD
- 53Emirhan TopçuD
- 33Rıdvan YılmazD
- 6Salih ÖzcanM
- 18Václav ČernýM
- 21Fabio MirettiM
- 10Orkun KökçüM
- 19Leandro TrossardM
- 28Dušan VlahovićF
- 29İlhan FakılıF
- 12Emmanuel AgbadouD
- 11Kassoum OuattaraD
- 4Wilfred NdidiM
- 8Kartal Kayra YılmazM
- 80Doğan AlemdarG
- 22Taylan BulutD
- 15Junior OlaitanM
- 17Ernest PokuF
- 83Serhat ÖztaşdelenG
- 22Uğur Kaan YıldızD
- 41Onur ÖztongaD
- 5Emir OrtakayaD
- 14ShowD
- 11Gonçalo SousaD
- 20Mahamadou SusohoM
- 10Berkan KutluM
- 75Tayfur BingölM
- 26Metehan AltunbaşF
- 7Dan AgyeiF
- 99Rigoberto RivasF
- 8Tobias Fjeld GulliksenM
- 97Florian AyéF
- 3Muharrem CinanD
- 32Makana BakuM
- 23Onurcan PiriG
- 16Deniz CeylanD
- 18Hulisi DesticiM
- 27Ege BilimM
Form going into Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor
Beşiktaş
- L2-3away to Amed20 September 2026
- W3-0Erzurumspor FK11 September 2026
- W2-1away to Fenerbahçe5 September 2026
- W6-2Çorum FK31 August 2026
Kocaelispor
- W2-0Gaziantep FK19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Galatasaray13 September 2026
- W1-0Samsunspor6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Konyaspor29 August 2026
What these results say
- Beşiktaş scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Beşiktaş had three goals or more.
- Beşiktaş won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Kocaelispor won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Kocaelispor scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Kocaelispor had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Beşiktaş | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 15 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor
- 11 October 2026Beşiktaş 2–1 KocaelisporSüper Lig
- 28 February 2026Kocaelispor 0–1 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
- 5 February 2026Kocaelispor 1–1 BeşiktaşTürkiye Kupası
- 29 September 2025Beşiktaş 3–1 KocaelisporSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Beşiktaş and Kocaelispor
Beşiktaş
GoalsAssists
- D. Vlahović60
- V. Černý21
Kocaelispor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.