Tenerife
vs
Girona
Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Tenerife 1-1 Girona.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Tenerife, 28% draw, 43% Girona — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Tenerife 1.08, Girona 1.47.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Tenerife vs Girona
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Girona at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tenerife vs Girona
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Dani MartínG
- 19César ÁlvarezD
- 12A. LandázuriD
- 4José LeónD
- 2David RodríguezD
- 29Daniel FernándezM
- 15FabricioM
- 20M. PittónM
- 10Nacho GilM
- 18Enric GallegoF
- 17C. GomisF
- 23A. KrdžalićM
- 3R. JureškinD
- 40Gabriel LozanoG
- 11Noel LópezF
- 21Marc MateuD
- 5Jorge MorenoD
- 7M. PečarM
- 22G. RanosF
- 14Gerard ValentínF
- 13P. GazzanigaG
- 4Javier BoñarD
- 38Holmes ZamoranoD
- 16Alejandro FrancésD
- 11Álex MorenoD
- 22Y. AsprillaM
- 8Fran BeltránM
- 24I. GonzalezM
- 23Carles PérezM
- 9Abel RuizF
- 19V. VanatF
- 30Unai HernándezM
- 29L. KouroumaM
- 25V. KrapyvtsovG
- 5David LópezD
- 14Iván MoranteM
- 3Mateu MoreyD
- 2A. MuminD
- 10PortuF
- 1Sergi PuigG
Form going into Tenerife vs Girona
Tenerife
- L2-3away to Cordoba5 October 2026
- D1-1Cadiz26 September 2026
- L0-5away to Castellón19 September 2026
- W2-0Leganes13 September 2026
Girona
- D0-0Mallorca4 October 2026
- W2-0Albacete25 September 2026
- W2-1away to Cadiz19 September 2026
- L1-2Castellón12 September 2026
What these results say
- Tenerife failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Tenerife scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Tenerife conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Girona scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Tenerife | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 12 |
| 7 | Girona | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Tenerife vs Girona
- 12 October 2026Tenerife 1–1 GironaSegunda División
- 19 June 2022Tenerife 1–3 GironaSegunda División
- 11 June 2022Girona 0–0 TenerifeSegunda División
- 9 May 2022Girona 0–1 TenerifeSegunda División
- 8 November 2021Tenerife 2–1 GironaSegunda División
- 1 May 2021Girona 1–0 TenerifeSegunda División
Leading scorers: Tenerife and Girona
Tenerife
GoalsAssists
- Enric Gallego60
Girona
GoalsAssists
- Y. Asprilla50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.08 goals for Tenerife and 1.47 for Girona; the game produced 1 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Yaser Asprilla 4' (Girona), Enric Gallego 26' (Tenerife).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Girona the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Tenerife against 1.47 for Girona. Tenerife's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.05 for Girona.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.