Al-Nassr
vs
Neftchi Fergana
AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Al-Nassr 3-1 Neftchi Fergana.
Before kick-off the model made it 85% Al-Nassr, 10% draw, 5% Neftchi Fergana — fair odds of 1.18, 10.00 and 20.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Al-Nassr 3.81, Neftchi Fergana 0.65.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 82%, under 2.5: 18%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
All AFC Champions League Elite predictions →
Model insights: Al-Nassr vs Neftchi Fergana
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Nassr at 85% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Nassr vs Neftchi Fergana
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 24BentoG
- 12Nawaf BoushalD
- 3M. SimakanD
- 26Íñigo MartínezD
- 70Awad AmanD
- 21K. ComanM
- 20ÂngeloM
- 11Samú CostaM
- 10S. ManéM
- 79João FélixF
- 7Cristiano RonaldoF
- 8Hayder AbdulkareemM
- 4Nader Al SharariD
- 14Sami Al NajiM
- 17Abdullah Al KhaibariM
- 60Saad HaqawiF
- 9Abdullah Al HamdanF
- 23Ayman YahyaM
- 53A. Al OtaibiG
- 66Sultan Abdullah Saad Al MasG
- 1B. ErgashevG
- 52K. KouaoD
- 6Ibrokhimkhalil YuldoshevD
- 4B. CigerD
- 3MichelD
- 10J. IskanderovM
- 5I. AlibaevM
- 31Yan SasseM
- 88M. ForssF
- 20A. G'ofurovF
- 7A. IsmailovF
- 22Alisher OdilovF
- 18S. PericaF
- 77RatinhoM
- 34F. SayfiyevD
- 71B. ToshmirzaevF
- 45A. TuraevG
- 21M. UbaydullayevM
- 11A. JumayevM
- 8V. JovovićM
Form going into Al-Nassr vs Neftchi Fergana
Al-Nassr
- L0-4away to Al Ain15 September 2026
Neftchi Fergana
- W1-0Al Quwa Al Jawiya14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Al-Nassr | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 7 | Neftchi Fergana | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Nassr vs Neftchi Fergana
- 12 October 2026Al-Nassr 3–1 Neftchi FerganaAFC Champions League Elite
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 3.81 goals for Al-Nassr and 0.65 for Neftchi Fergana; the game produced 3 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Angelo Borges 33' (Al-Nassr), Cristiano Ronaldo 42' (Al-Nassr), Alisher Odilov 51' (Neftchi Fergana), Anvarjon Gofurov 78' (Al-Nassr).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Nassr the highest probability at 85%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.81 expected goals for Al-Nassr against 0.65 for Neftchi Fergana. Al-Nassr's attack/defence rating is 1.15/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.85 for Neftchi Fergana.