League Phase - 2 · 12 October 2026, 18:15 UTC

Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Ain AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result

Basra Sports City, Basra
Referee: Jingyuan Jin, China
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1-4 Al Ain.

Before kick-off the model made it 14% Al Quwa Al Jawiya, 21% draw, 65% Al Ain — fair odds of 7.14, 4.76 and 1.54. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (12%).

Expected goals: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0.79, Al Ain 2.27.

Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

Model insights: Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Ain

49%
Both teams to score
59%
Over 2.5 goals
41%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines0-2 12%0-1 10%1-2 10%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Al Ain at 65% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
⚽Alejandro Romero Gamarra
18'
⚽Saed Al-Rosan (OG)
23'
⚽Houssine Rahimiassist: Matías Palacios
43'
⚽Houssine Rahimiassist: Soufiane Rahimi
🔁Abbas Adil Neamah Al Chnaniout: Hareth Hatem
45'
🔁Tuisila Kisindaout: Moses Orkuma
45'
🔁Haythem Jouiniout: Muslim Mousa
45'
50'
•Soufiane Rahimi
🔁Mohanad Jeahzeout: Ali Saad
62'
64'
🔁Rafa Rodriguesout: Adis Jasic
64'
🔁Houssine Rahimiout: Baba Bello Ilou
64'
🔁Valentino Lazaroout: Teun Gijselhart
Abdulameer
68'
🔁Abdulameerout: Mohammad Sami
77'
80'
🔁Alejandro Romero Gamarraout: Ibrahima Junior Ndiaye
83'
🔁Djordje Skokoout: Marcos André Paulino Maia
⚽Mohammad Jawad (pen)
84'
⚽Mohammad Jawadassist: Mohammad Sami
89'

Match stats — Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Ain

44%Possession56%
7Shots19
2On target8
3Corners9
1.72xG2.4

Goals against chances

Al Quwa Al Jawiya1 from 1.72 xGless than the chances were worth
Al Ain4 from 2.40 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 5-4-1
  • 95Mohammed SalihG
  • 17Abbas Adil Neamah Al ChnaniD
  • 2Ruslan HanoonD
  • 5Saed Al RosanD
  • 19A. BoudramaD
  • 6Mohanad JeahzeD
  • 29Tuisila KisindaM
  • 25AbdulameerM
  • 24Abbas Fawzi HasanM
  • 9Haythem JouiniM
  • 10M. JawadF
Substitutes
  • 3Muslim MousaD
  • 31Mohammad Raheem Ziad DalfiG
  • 13Mujtaba MuhsenD
  • 21Ramadan SadeeqD
  • 77Mohammad SamiM
  • 73Ali SaadM
  • 7A. OkpotuF
  • 11Murad SubehM
  • 90Karar Ali HassanD
Coach: Rashid Jaber
Al Ain 5-3-2
  • 17Khalid EisaG
  • 19V. LazaroD
  • 4Y. Ben KhaleqD
  • 25Rami RabiaD
  • 6Đ. SkokoD
  • 2Rafael RodriguesD
  • 10A. RomeroM
  • 70Abdoul Karim TraoréM
  • 20M. PalaciosM
  • 21S. RahimiF
  • 13H. RahimiF
Substitutes
  • 56A. NiangD
  • 3Marcos MaiaD
  • 65Abdallah Hamisi HassanG
  • 18B. IlouF
  • 15ErikD
  • 38I. NdiayeM
  • 54Ismaila OkpotiD
  • 80Joshua UdohM
  • 97A. JašićM
Coach: Vladimir Ivic

Form going into Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Ain

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

  • L0-1away to Neftchi Fergana14 September 2026

Al Ain

  • W4-0Al-Nassr15 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

AFC Champions League Elite table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Al Quwa Al Jawiya200215-40
1Al Ain220081+76

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Ain

  • 12 October 2026Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1–4 Al AinAFC Champions League Elite

Leading scorers: Al Quwa Al Jawiya and Al Ain

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.

Al Ain

GoalsAssists

  • H. Rahimi40
  • A. Romero12
  • S. Rahimi12

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 0.79 goals for Al Quwa Al Jawiya and 2.27 for Al Ain; the game produced 1 and 4.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Alejandro Romero Gamarra 13' (Al Ain), Saed Al-Rosan 18' (Al Ain), Houssine Rahimi 23' (Al Ain), Houssine Rahimi 43' (Al Ain), Mohammad Jawad 89' (Al Quwa Al Jawiya).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Al Ain the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Al Quwa Al Jawiya against 2.27 for Al Ain. Al Quwa Al Jawiya's attack/defence rating is 0.41/2.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.07 for Al Ain.