Hapoel Jerusalem
vs
Maccabi Haifa
Ligat Ha'al prediction & result
Final score: Hapoel Jerusalem 1-4 Maccabi Haifa.
Before kick-off the model made it 21% Hapoel Jerusalem, 22% draw, 57% Maccabi Haifa — fair odds of 4.76, 4.55 and 1.75. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Hapoel Jerusalem 1.26, Maccabi Haifa 2.37.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
All Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions →
Model insights: Hapoel Jerusalem vs Maccabi Haifa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maccabi Haifa at 57% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hapoel Jerusalem vs Maccabi Haifa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 55N. ZamirG
- 70S. ZuberuD
- 16O. AgvadishD
- 3N. MalmudD
- 22T. HaimovichD
- 18L. MizrachiD
- 19N. VrasanaM
- 8I. MadmonM
- 91C. TiéhiM
- 25A. IdokoM
- 9E. ChilufyaF
- 14O. AbuhavM
- 10V. DamaşcanF
- 33I. DaphahF
- 11Y. DistalfeldM
- 1B. Gordin AnbaryG
- 20O. NadirD
- 21Hilay Sharabi MelmanD
- 7O. AlmagorF
- 26I. CohenD
- 55O. GlazerG
- 25J. BatailleD
- 21N. LonwijkD
- 35N. SztejfmanD
- 16K. SaiefD
- 19E. AzoulayM
- 4A. MuhammadM
- 30Pedro BrazãoM
- 10BruninhoM
- 11K. GorréM
- 9A. NovakovićF
- 29Iyad KhalailiM
- 8Y. LeviM
- 18G. MelamedF
- 7Y. MordechaiM
- 1yaacov omer on nirG
- 36N. RatnerD
- 66TsunamiD
- 26S. KaniM
- 44PedrãoD
Form going into Hapoel Jerusalem vs Maccabi Haifa
Hapoel Jerusalem
- W4-2away to Maccabi Petah Tikva19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Ironi Tiberias15 September 2026
- W4-2Ironi Kiryat Shmona5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Hapoel Petah Tikva29 August 2026
Maccabi Haifa
- W3-2Ironi Tiberias19 September 2026
- W4-0away to Ironi Kiryat Shmona14 September 2026
- W2-1Hapoel Petah Tikva5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Maccabi Tel Aviv31 August 2026
What these results say
- Hapoel Jerusalem conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Hapoel Jerusalem scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Hapoel Jerusalem had three goals or more.
- Maccabi Haifa scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Maccabi Haifa had three goals or more.
- Maccabi Haifa won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hapoel Jerusalem | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 7 |
| 2 | Maccabi Haifa | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hapoel Jerusalem vs Maccabi Haifa
- 12 October 2026Hapoel Jerusalem 1–4 Maccabi HaifaLigat Ha'al
- 17 August 2026Maccabi Haifa 0–1 Hapoel JerusalemToto Cup Ligat Al
- 7 February 2026Hapoel Jerusalem 1–1 Maccabi HaifaLigat Ha'al
- 1 November 2025Maccabi Haifa 2–2 Hapoel JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 17 February 2025Maccabi Haifa 3–3 Hapoel JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 8 November 2024Hapoel Jerusalem 0–0 Maccabi HaifaLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Hapoel Jerusalem and Maccabi Haifa
Hapoel Jerusalem
GoalsAssists
- A. Idoko42
- N. Vrasana40
Maccabi Haifa
GoalsAssists
- A. Novaković41
- Bruninho34
- Pedro Brazão22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.26 goals for Hapoel Jerusalem and 2.37 for Maccabi Haifa; the game produced 1 and 4.
Goals
Scorers, in order: andrew idoko 26' (Hapoel Jerusalem), Andrija Novakovich 40' (Maccabi Haifa), Pedro Brazão 44' (Maccabi Haifa), Kenji Gorre 67' (Maccabi Haifa), Guy Melamed 77' (Maccabi Haifa).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maccabi Haifa the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Hapoel Jerusalem against 2.37 for Maccabi Haifa. Hapoel Jerusalem's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.44 for Maccabi Haifa.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.