Mladost Lucani
vs
OFK Beograd
Super Liga prediction & result
Final score: Mladost Lucani 0-0 OFK Beograd.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Mladost Lucani, 29% draw, 34% OFK Beograd — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Mladost Lucani 1.31, OFK Beograd 1.24.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mladost Lucani at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. StamenkovićG
- 17A. VarjačićD
- 7N. AndrićD
- 30N. ĆirkovićD
- 33V. JovanovićD
- 37F. MladenovićD
- 88Vasil TasovskiM
- 29D. JovančićM
- 39J. UzuegbunamM
- 32B. JovičićM
- 22JoãoF
- 9Petar BojićM
- 14T. BondarenkoD
- 25J. ĆirićM
- 44M. CvetkovićD
- 36D. DjokicM
- 12M. JoksimovićD
- 10O. KrsmanovicM
- 27Nenad RadićM
- 40Nikola ĆirovićM
- 97N. StojišićG
- 4A. PavlovicD
- 14M. MomčilovićD
- 15N. MarašD
- 27H. AderojuM
- 6S. PeñaM
- 3E. AddoM
- 2S. DespotovskiM
- 19D. RankovicM
- 47S. StojkoviÄM
- 9Ethan HoardF
- 31Vuk DraškićG
- 11T. De BarrF
- 23M. RodićD
- 20J. ŠljivićM
- 24U. StojanovićD
- 18H. TouréD
- 45A. VukičevićD
- 7T. WouterF
- 17M. BešićM
Form going into Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd
Mladost Lucani
- W2-1away to Macva20 September 2026
- L0-5away to Radnicki 192312 September 2026
- W1-0Radnicki NIS5 September 2026
- L0-2away to IMT Novi Beograd30 August 2026
OFK Beograd
- L3-5Radnicki 192319 September 2026
- L1-3away to Radnicki NIS13 September 2026
- D1-1IMT Novi Beograd7 September 2026
- L1-3away to FK Partizan31 August 2026
What these results say
- Mladost Lucani conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- OFK Beograd did not win any of these 4 matches.
- OFK Beograd scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- OFK Beograd conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mladost Lucani | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 17 |
| 11 | OFK Beograd | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd
- 12 October 2026Mladost Lucani 0–0 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
- 1 February 2026Mladost Lucani 0–0 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
- 23 August 2025OFK Beograd 1–1 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
- 11 May 2025OFK Beograd 1–0 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
- 24 November 2024OFK Beograd 0–0 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
- 20 July 2024Mladost Lucani 1–2 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Mladost Lucani and OFK Beograd
Mladost Lucani
GoalsAssists
- Vasil Tasovski40
- João30
OFK Beograd
GoalsAssists
- Y. Silue60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Mladost Lucani carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.22 for OFK Beograd. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Mladost Lucani and 1.24 for OFK Beograd. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mladost Lucani rate 0.42 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; OFK Beograd rate 0.55 and 1.95.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mladost Lucani the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Mladost Lucani against 1.24 for OFK Beograd. Mladost Lucani's attack/defence rating is 0.42/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.95 for OFK Beograd.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.