Radomiak Radom
vs
Motor Lublin
Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Radomiak Radom 2-3 Motor Lublin.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Radomiak Radom, 27% draw, 36% Motor Lublin — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Radomiak Radom 1.52, Motor Lublin 1.50.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Radomiak Radom at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1F. MajchrowiczG
- 3K. SzcześniakD
- 14S. KingueD
- 72F. KoperskiD
- 13J. GrzesikD
- 10R. AlvesM
- 77C. DonisM
- 90Ronaldo AfonsoM
- 27R. WolskiM
- 21ElvesM
- 11F. GouréF
- 8I. CamaráM
- 18ManuF
- 26Adrián DiéguezD
- 99B. GradeckiG
- 23K. KarasekM
- 82LuquinhasM
- 7C. NunnelyF
- 80Guilherme LuizF
- 28Romário BaróM
- 33G. TratnikG
- 17K. LukoszekD
- 18B. BereszyńskiD
- 4T. PlavotićD
- 24F. LubereckiD
- 27Y. BourhaneM
- 30M. NdiayeM
- 9Rony LopesM
- 8C. SimonM
- 70M. AïkoM
- 10K. CzubakF
- 5A. AkatovD
- 39M. BartošD
- 90Dominik GregorskiF
- 23F. HaxhaM
- 2Paskal Konrad MeyerD
- 71M. PopaG
- 77Mateusz PosmykF
- 29T. SantosD
- 47Alioune TallM
Form going into Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin
Radomiak Radom
- L1-5away to Lech Poznan20 September 2026
- L0-2Piast Gliwice14 September 2026
- D0-0away to Widzew Łódź5 September 2026
- W2-1Cracovia Krakow29 August 2026
Motor Lublin
- D0-0Gornik Zabrze19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Raków Częstochowa11 September 2026
- L2-3Legia Warszawa5 September 2026
- L0-2Piast Gliwice29 August 2026
What these results say
- Radomiak Radom failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Radomiak Radom conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Motor Lublin did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Motor Lublin conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Radomiak Radom | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 8 |
| 14 | Motor Lublin | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin
- 12 October 2026Radomiak Radom 2–3 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 6 April 2026Radomiak Radom 1–1 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 29 September 2025Motor Lublin 2–2 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 24 May 2025Radomiak Radom 2–3 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 2 December 2024Motor Lublin 1–0 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 12 July 2024Radomiak Radom 1–1 Motor LublinFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin
Radomiak Radom
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Motor Lublin
GoalsAssists
- K. Czubak60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.52 goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.50 for Motor Lublin; the game produced 2 and 3.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Filip Koperski 24' (Radomiak Radom), Mbaye Jacques Ndiaye 53' (Motor Lublin), Karol Czubak 70' (Motor Lublin), Steve Kingue 80' (Radomiak Radom), Christopher Simon 90' (Motor Lublin).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Radomiak Radom the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Radomiak Radom against 1.50 for Motor Lublin. Radomiak Radom's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.37 for Motor Lublin.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.