GKS Katowice
vs
Wieczysta Kraków
Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: GKS Katowice 2-1 Wieczysta Kraków.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% GKS Katowice, 22% draw, 21% Wieczysta Kraków — fair odds of 1.75, 4.55 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: GKS Katowice 2.39, Wieczysta Kraków 1.30.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: GKS Katowice vs Wieczysta Kraków
Has the model earned this number?
It puts GKS Katowice at 57% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — GKS Katowice vs Wieczysta Kraków
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 87G. KobylakG
- 30A. CzerwińskiD
- 6L. KlemenzD
- 55Pau RestaD
- 23M. WasielewskiM
- 19K. ŁukasiakM
- 77M. KowalczykM
- 7M. WdowiakM
- 10M. WędrychowskiF
- 17I. ShkurinF
- 27B. NowakF
- 99A. ZreľákF
- 31S. BartlewiczM
- 8Borja GalánM
- 4A. JędrychD
- 97E. JirkaM
- 1M. KikolskiG
- 21Jakub KokosinskiF
- 15E. MarkovićM
- 22S. MilewskiM
- 77M. KochalskiG
- 15A. ĐermanovićD
- 16A. MilićD
- 55D. DujmovićD
- 4K. FilaM
- 10T. ChristensenM
- 20M. MaigaardM
- 33K. PestkaM
- 19José de la RosaM
- 12Lucas PiazónM
- 7Lisandro SemedoF
- 17K. DankowskiD
- 11N. KneževićM
- 9E. KoulourisF
- 8B. LedermanM
- 88C. LungoyiF
- 1A. MikułkoG
- 97T. MrasM
- 70P. PušićM
- 27M. VojtkoD
Form going into GKS Katowice vs Wieczysta Kraków
GKS Katowice
- W4-1away to Raków Częstochowa9 October 2026
- W3-2Cracovia Krakow19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Zaglebie Lubin12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Piast Gliwice4 September 2026
Wieczysta Kraków
- W3-0Wisla Plock9 October 2026
- D2-2away to Widzew Łódź18 September 2026
- L0-2away to Pogon Szczecin13 September 2026
- D1-1Zaglebie Lubin7 September 2026
What these results say
- GKS Katowice conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for GKS Katowice had three goals or more.
- GKS Katowice scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Wieczysta Kraków failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Wieczysta Kraków scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Wieczysta Kraków conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 15 | +7 | 18 |
| 15 | Wieczysta Kraków | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: GKS Katowice vs Wieczysta Kraków
- 12 October 2026GKS Katowice 2–1 Wieczysta KrakówEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: GKS Katowice and Wieczysta Kraków
GKS Katowice
GoalsAssists
- I. Shkurin81
- B. Nowak48
Wieczysta Kraków
GoalsAssists
- Lucas Piazón32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.39 goals for GKS Katowice and 1.30 for Wieczysta Kraków; the game produced 2 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Ilia Shkurin 15' (GKS Katowice), Bartosz Bialek 62' (Wieczysta Kraków), Bartosz Nowak 74' (GKS Katowice).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives GKS Katowice the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.39 expected goals for GKS Katowice against 1.30 for Wieczysta Kraków. GKS Katowice's attack/defence rating is 1/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.44 for Wieczysta Kraków.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.