Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Legia Warszawa 2-0 Wisla Krakow.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Legia Warszawa, 26% draw, 26% Wisla Krakow — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Legia Warszawa at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 89O. HindrichG
- 91K. PiątkowskiD
- 8R. AugustyniakD
- 5Robert DezielD
- 22P. WszołekM
- 4D. SzymańskiM
- 67B. KapustkaM
- 11K. ChodynaM
- 17M. SzczepaniakF
- 79Ł. ZjawińskiF
- 9R. AdamskiF
- 20J. ŻewłakowF
- 6Henrique ArreiolM
- 24Z. ArsenićD
- 1I. BrkićG
- 14A. ČolakF
- 2S. FukudaD
- 13A. RecaD
- 23M. ŠevčíkM
- 53W. UrbańskiM
- 1M. ŁubikG
- 34R. GigerD
- 6A. UrygaD
- 29D. GrujčićD
- 52J. KrzyżanowskiD
- 10Frederico DuarteM
- 41K. DudaM
- 7J. ErtlthalerM
- 12J. IgbekemeM
- 17M. BožićM
- 9Ángel RodadoF
- 4R. MikulecD
- 93B. NeugebauerG
- 32Oliwier PlawinskiM
- 23Víctor MeseguerM
- 13M. MaisonneuveD
- 2J. LelieveldD
- 50M. KutwaD
- 8Marc CarbóM
- 97W. BiedrzyckiD
Form going into Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow
Legia Warszawa
- W3-1away to Jagiellonia20 September 2026
- D1-1Widzew Łódź13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Motor Lublin5 September 2026
- D1-1Slask Wroclaw28 August 2026
Wisla Krakow
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw18 September 2026
- W2-0Jagiellonia11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Korona Kielce5 September 2026
- W2-0Wieczysta Kraków29 August 2026
What these results say
- Legia Warszawa went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Legia Warszawa scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Legia Warszawa conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Wisla Krakow went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Wisla Krakow scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Wisla Krakow won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 22 |
| 6 | Wisla Krakow | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow
- 11 October 2026Legia Warszawa 2–0 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
- 25 February 2022Legia Warszawa 2–1 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
- 29 August 2021Wisla Krakow 1–0 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 1 May 2021Legia Warszawa 0–0 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
- 12 December 2020Wisla Krakow 1–2 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 7 June 2020Wisla Krakow 1–3 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow
Legia Warszawa
GoalsAssists
- R. Augustyniak42
- R. Adamski40
- Ł. Zjawiński40
Wisla Krakow
GoalsAssists
- Ángel Rodado41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.