11 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Estac Troyes vs Marseille Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade de l'Aube, Troyes
Referee: Guillaume Paradis
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Estac Troyes 0-2 Marseille.

Before kick-off the model made it 22% Estac Troyes, 24% draw, 54% Marseille — fair odds of 4.55, 4.17 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Marseille at 54% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Estac Troyes0%Draw3%Marseille97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Lucas Maronnier
22'
45'
Angel Gomes
50'
⚽Amine Haritassist: Emerson Palmieri
Dermane Karim
58'
🔁Iron Gomisout: Renaud Ripart
61'
63'
🔁Amine Haritout: Keyliane Abdallah
63'
🔁Amine Gouiriout: Neal Maupay
🔁Kandet Diawaraout: Hugo Picard
69'
73'
🔁Nouhoum Kamissokoout: Tochukwu Nnadi
🔁Jérémy Le Douaronout: Alexandre Philiponeau
77'
🔁Dermane Karimout: Christ Batola
78'
🔁Mouhamed Diopout: Timothee Nkada
78'
87'
🔁Angel Gomesout: Geoffrey Kondogbia
87'
🔁Igor Paixãoout: Faris Moumbagna
Antoine Mille
88'
Patrick Beach
90+6'
90+8'
⚽Himad Abdelli (pen)

Match stats — Estac Troyes vs Marseille

37%Possession63%
15Shots5
3On target2
6Corners3
1.14xG1.36

Goals against chances

Estac Troyes0 from 1.14 xGless than the chances were worth
Marseille2 from 1.36 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Estac Troyes 4-2-3-1
  • 33P. BeachG
  • 2L. MaronnierD
  • 6A. MonfrayD
  • 4M. DiazD
  • 5P. GozziD
  • 8M. DiopM
  • 29D. KarimM
  • 17A. MilleM
  • 11I. GomisM
  • 7K. DiawaraM
  • 9J. Le DouaronF
Substitutes
  • 10M. IfnaouiM
  • 31Noah DonkorD
  • 37C. BatolaF
  • 40H. KonatéG
  • 23T. NkadaF
  • 26A. PhliponeauM
  • 22H. PicardM
  • 20R. RipartF
  • 34Lassana SimakhaD
Coach: S. Dumont
Marseille 4-2-3-1
  • 12J. de LangeG
  • 74K. BezahafD
  • 4C. Egan-RileyD
  • 21N. AguerdD
  • 33EmersonD
  • 8H. AbdelliM
  • 42Nouhoum KamissokoM
  • 77A. HaritM
  • 7A. GomesM
  • 14Igor PaixãoM
  • 9A. GouiriF
Substitutes
  • 92T. VermotG
  • 25U. GarciaD
  • 48K. AbdallahF
  • 19G. KondogbiaM
  • 18B. MeitéD
  • 46E. MbondoD
  • 11N. MaupayF
  • 6T. NnadiM
  • 29F. MoumbagnaF
Coach: Bruno Genesio

Form going into Estac Troyes vs Marseille

Estac Troyes

  • L0-2away to Angers19 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Lille13 September 2026
  • L2-6Strasbourg6 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Lorient29 August 2026

Marseille

  • L1-2Paris Saint Germain20 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Rennes11 September 2026
  • L2-3Paris FC6 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Monaco30 August 2026

What these results say

  • Estac Troyes conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Estac Troyes failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Marseille did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Marseille conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Estac Troyes6114413-94
13Marseille620498+16

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Estac Troyes vs Marseille

  • 11 October 2026Estac Troyes 0–2 MarseilleLigue 1
  • 16 April 2023Marseille 3–1 Estac TroyesLigue 1
  • 11 January 2023Estac Troyes 0–2 MarseilleLigue 1
  • 27 February 2022Estac Troyes 1–1 MarseilleLigue 1
  • 28 November 2021Marseille 1–0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
  • 15 April 2018Estac Troyes 2–3 MarseilleLigue 1

The full Estac Troyes vs Marseille record →

Leading scorers: Estac Troyes and Marseille

Estac Troyes

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Marseille

GoalsAssists

  • A. Gouiri41

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.