Nice vs Strasbourg Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Nice 2-1 Strasbourg.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Nice, 26% draw, 44% Strasbourg — fair odds of 3.33, 3.85 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Strasbourg at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Nice vs Strasbourg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23Y. DioufG
- 5Mohamed AbdelmonemD
- 55Y. NdayishimiyeD
- 35X. Mandza TsiendiD
- 92J. ClaussM
- 39D. CoulibalyM
- 28A. WitselM
- 27N. NkounkouM
- 7G. HeinM
- 9M. AmouraM
- 11E. WahiF
- 77T. BoulhendiG
- 6H. BoudaouiM
- 10S. DiopM
- 38A. CamaraM
- 21I. JanssonF
- 84H. KoutouneD
- 41D. MoranaF
- 87E. PereiraM
- 36A. SeiduD
- 1F. JörgensenG
- 16G. AntwiD
- 4J. MitchellD
- 31Abdoul Karim CoulibalyD
- 36OsoD
- 23Diogo SousaM
- 21P. DiopM
- 14Dário EssugoM
- 7S. Amo-AmeyawF
- 40C. HarderF
- 80Gessime YassineF
- 10G. ReynaM
- 19Fabio Amadu Uri BaldéF
- 43Y. BeckerD
- 35Yaya DiemeF
- 29S. El MourabetM
- 24L. HøgsbergD
- 28Tyrese NoubissieM
- 30J. OrtegaF
- 12M. PiekutowskiG
Form going into Nice vs Strasbourg
Nice
- W2-1Lille20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Auxerre12 September 2026
- D1-1Le Mans5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Paris FC30 August 2026
Strasbourg
- L1-2away to Paris FC19 September 2026
- D1-1Monaco12 September 2026
- W6-2away to Estac Troyes6 September 2026
- W2-1Lens29 August 2026
What these results say
- Nice conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Nice failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Strasbourg scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Strasbourg conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Strasbourg.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Nice vs Strasbourg
- 11 October 2026Nice 2–1 StrasbourgLigue 1
- 22 April 2026Strasbourg 0–2 NiceCoupe de France
- 4 April 2026Strasbourg 3–1 NiceLigue 1
- 3 January 2026Nice 1–1 StrasbourgLigue 1
- 12 April 2025Strasbourg 2–2 NiceLigue 1
- 24 November 2024Nice 2–1 StrasbourgLigue 1
Leading scorers: Nice and Strasbourg
Nice
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Strasbourg
GoalsAssists
- Gessime Yassine21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.