11 October 2026, 14:45 UTC

Excelsior vs Groningen Eredivisie prediction & result

Stadion Woudestein, Rotterdam
Referee: Richard Martens
Full time1 – 5

Final score: Excelsior 1-5 Groningen.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Excelsior, 26% draw, 30% Groningen — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Excelsior at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽Marco Rente
20'
David van der Werff
⚽Irakli Yegoian (pen)
36'
38'
⚽Stijn van Gassel (OG)
59'
•Jorg Schreuders
64'
⚽Thom Van Bergen (pen)
🔁Simon Janssenout: Kasey Bos
65'
🔁David Gardenout: Mario Domínguez Franco
65'
🔁Ágúst Orri Thorsteinssonout: Daniel van Vianen
65'
🔁Eric da Silva Moreiraout: Valentin Sulzbacher
65'
66'
🔁Jacob Ondrejkaout: Tygo Land
67'
⚽Brynjólfur Darri Willumssonassist: Pelle Clement
72'
🔁Hans Hateboerout: Mark Csinger
80'
Tygo Land
🔁Aymen slitiout: Alireza Jahanbakhsh
81'
84'
🔁Brynjólfur Darri Willumssonout: Nils Eggens
85'
🔁Thom Van Bergenout: Ryan Metu
85'
🔁David van der Werffout: Oskar Zawada
90+5'
⚽Marco Rente

Match stats — Excelsior vs Groningen

49%Possession51%
16Shots14
2On target9
3Corners6
1.81xG2.77

Goals against chances

Excelsior1 from 1.81 xGless than the chances were worth
Groningen5 from 2.77 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Excelsior 4-3-3
  • 1S. van GasselG
  • 2Eric Emanuel da Silva MoreiraD
  • 4C. WidellD
  • 14J. PlugD
  • 15S. JanssenD
  • 8I. YegoianM
  • 3R. MeissenM
  • 20L. HartjesM
  • 7A. SlitiF
  • 19D. GardenF
  • 30Á. ÞorsteinssonF
Substitutes
  • 16Celton BiaiG
  • 11A. JahanbakhshF
  • 21I. Silva TimasF
  • 18V. SulzbacherM
  • 22O. TurayD
  • 6D. van VianenM
  • 28N. GroenF
  • 9Mario DomínguezF
  • 24Giulliano CairoM
Coach: R. den Uil
Groningen 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. VaessenG
  • 14J. SchreudersD
  • 3T. BlokzijlD
  • 5M. RenteD
  • 33H. HateboerD
  • 8T. de JongeM
  • 24P. ClementM
  • 17D. van der WerffM
  • 26T. van BergenM
  • 11J. OndrejkaM
  • 9B. WillumssonF
Substitutes
  • 4M. CsingerD
  • 20Nils EggensF
  • 53J. HallM
  • 18T. LandM
  • 34R. MetuF
  • 42J. MosselaarD
  • 16A. NordinM
  • 2Wouter PrinsD
  • 19O. ZawadaF
Coach: D. Lukkien

Form going into Excelsior vs Groningen

Excelsior

  • D2-2away to Ajax19 September 2026
  • L1-2Utrecht13 September 2026
  • D2-2away to NEC Nijmegen8 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Willem II5 September 2026

Groningen

  • W3-0PEC Zwolle18 September 2026
  • D1-1away to GO Ahead Eagles12 September 2026
  • D2-2Twente6 September 2026
  • L2-3Fortuna Sittard28 August 2026

What these results say

  • Excelsior scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Excelsior had three goals or more.
  • Excelsior failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Groningen scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Groningen failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Groningen conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Excelsior83231614+211
6Groningen84222014+614

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Excelsior vs Groningen

  • 11 October 2026Excelsior 1–5 GroningenEredivisie
  • 2 May 2026Groningen 2–3 ExcelsiorEredivisie
  • 5 December 2025Excelsior 0–2 GroningenEredivisie
  • 16 January 2024Excelsior 0–2 GroningenKNVB Beker
  • 25 February 2023Groningen 3–0 ExcelsiorEredivisie
  • 8 January 2023Excelsior 1–0 GroningenEredivisie

The full Excelsior vs Groningen record →

Leading scorers: Excelsior and Groningen

Excelsior

No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Groningen

GoalsAssists

  • T. van Bergen52
  • B. Willumsson50

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.