Fortuna Sittard vs Twente Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Fortuna Sittard 1-1 Twente.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Fortuna Sittard, 25% draw, 49% Twente — fair odds of 3.85, 4.00 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Twente at 49% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fortuna Sittard vs Twente
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31M. BranderhorstG
- 12Ivo PintoD
- 3Rodrigo GuthD
- 6S. van OtteleD
- 28Justin Quincy HubnerD
- 23P. BrittijnM
- 20É. MichutM
- 22Shiloh Kiesar ’t ZandM
- 52M. IhattarenF
- 25L. ZeefuikF
- 9A. DescotteF
- 2S. WylinD
- 15N. de GrootD
- 38Moussa GbemouM
- 33K. ReitmaierG
- 1L. KoopmansG
- 7K. PetersonF
- 10O. RomenyF
- 14S. SimonsM
- 24D. SinkgravenD
- 16J. DrommelG
- 28B. van RooijD
- 3R. PröpperD
- 4R. NijstadD
- 29A. AdelgaardD
- 6R. ZerroukiM
- 8D. WeidmannM
- 11D. RotsM
- 10Y. TahaM
- 7M. PjacaM
- 9W. WeghorstF
- 25Lucas Vennegoor of HesselinkF
- 20T. van den BeltM
- 37N. ÜnüvarF
- 2M. RosiakD
- 22R. PasveerG
- 24K. KurowskiD
- 14K. HlynssonM
- 31Yannick GerritsenG
- 18Jordy BawuahM
Form going into Fortuna Sittard vs Twente
Fortuna Sittard
- W1-0away to Willem II19 September 2026
- L1-5Ajax12 September 2026
- W3-2away to ADO Den Haag6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Groningen28 August 2026
Twente
- W3-2PSV Eindhoven20 September 2026
- W2-0ADO Den Haag12 September 2026
- W1-0Telstar9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Groningen6 September 2026
What these results say
- Fortuna Sittard scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Fortuna Sittard won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Fortuna Sittard conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Twente went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Twente scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Twente won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 14 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fortuna Sittard vs Twente
- 10 October 2026Fortuna Sittard 1–1 TwenteEredivisie
- 21 March 2026Fortuna Sittard 1–2 TwenteEredivisie
- 26 September 2025Twente 3–2 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 5 April 2025Twente 1–1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 23 November 2024Fortuna Sittard 1–2 TwenteEredivisie
- 6 April 2024Twente 2–0 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
Leading scorers: Fortuna Sittard and Twente
Fortuna Sittard
GoalsAssists
- M. Ihattaren33
Twente
GoalsAssists
- W. Weghorst42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.