Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Ajax, 21% draw, 18% NEC Nijmegen — fair odds of 1.64, 4.76 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ajax at 61% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. ter StegenG
- 2Lucas RosaD
- 6T. KehrerD
- 15Y. BaasD
- 5O. WijndalD
- 24J. MokioM
- 4S. AmrabatM
- 8J. BrandtM
- 11V. TsygankovF
- 99T. ArokodareF
- 10O. GloukhF
- 28Y. BissoumaM
- 7S. AdingraF
- 18D. KlaassenM
- 38Marcos LeonardoF
- 68A. OuazaneM
- 26M. PaesG
- 36D. JanseD
- 20O. EdvardsenF
- 30A. BouwmanD
- 1G. CrettazG
- 73Gabriel BrásD
- 4P. SchuursD
- 24Deveron FonvilleD
- 21T. StormM
- 6D. NejašmićM
- 20N. LebretonM
- 34Kevin KersM
- 9T. CheryM
- 10D. TadićM
- 30B. LinssenF
- 11W. WillumssonM
- 19Adam TahauiF
- 12N. PolsterG
- 42Y. MoslihD
- 35Jamiro MonteiroM
- 22A. KaplanD
- 8I. Hansen-AarøenM
- 36Freek EntiusG
- 99Clement BischoffF
Form going into Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen
Ajax
- D2-2Excelsior19 September 2026
- W5-1Willem II15 September 2026
- W5-1away to Fortuna Sittard12 September 2026
- L1-3PSV Eindhoven5 September 2026
NEC Nijmegen
- D1-1GO Ahead Eagles20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Cambuur12 September 2026
- D2-2Excelsior8 September 2026
- L1-3Feyenoord5 September 2026
What these results say
- Ajax scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Ajax conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Ajax had three goals or more.
- NEC Nijmegen did not win any of these 4 matches.
- NEC Nijmegen conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- NEC Nijmegen scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 15 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen
- 10 October 2026Ajax 1–1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 21 February 2026Ajax 1–1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 20 December 2025NEC Nijmegen 2–2 AjaxEredivisie
- 11 May 2025Ajax 0–3 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 1 December 2024NEC Nijmegen 1–2 AjaxEredivisie
- 18 February 2024Ajax 2–2 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
Leading scorers: Ajax and NEC Nijmegen
Ajax
GoalsAssists
- T. Arokodare41
- J. Brandt40
NEC Nijmegen
GoalsAssists
- T. Chery42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.