PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: PSV Eindhoven 2-0 Heerenveen.
Before kick-off the model made it 67% PSV Eindhoven, 18% draw, 15% Heerenveen — fair odds of 1.49, 5.56 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts PSV Eindhoven at 67% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32M. KovářG
- 8S. DestD
- 6R. FlamingoD
- 4A. ObispoD
- 17Mauro JúniorD
- 24K. SanoM
- 31N. FernandezM
- 19E. BajraktarevicM
- 20G. TilM
- 7R. van BommelM
- 21S. MijnansF
- 37A. BouhamdiF
- 23M. HansenF
- 42S. CornecionM
- 3Yarek GasiorowskiD
- 2L. GeertruidaD
- 18F. KostićM
- 27D. ManF
- 41Khadim NgomG
- 1N. OlijG
- 22B. KlaverboerG
- 45O. BraudeD
- 4S. KerstenD
- 3M. WillemsenD
- 19V. ZagaritisD
- 16M. LindayM
- 36N. CourtensM
- 20J. TrenskowM
- 14L. SmansM
- 7M. RiveraM
- 9D. VenteF
- 15M. EgbringD
- 21M. FarjiF
- 2M. HilgersD
- 29L. MachineF
- 10R. MeerveldM
- 44A. NoppertG
- 11L. OyenF
- 28H. PetrovD
- 41J. ScholtenD
Form going into PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen
PSV Eindhoven
- L2-3away to Twente20 September 2026
- W4-1Sparta Rotterdam13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Ajax5 September 2026
- W6-1away to Utrecht30 August 2026
Heerenveen
- W4-0away to Sparta Rotterdam19 September 2026
- D0-0Telstar13 September 2026
- L2-3AZ Alkmaar6 September 2026
- D2-2away to Willem II30 August 2026
What these results say
- PSV Eindhoven scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for PSV Eindhoven had three goals or more.
- Heerenveen failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Heerenveen scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Heerenveen had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 10 | +16 | 19 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen
- 9 October 2026PSV Eindhoven 2–0 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 21 February 2026PSV Eindhoven 3–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 4 February 2026PSV Eindhoven 4–1 HeerenveenKNVB Beker
- 6 December 2025Heerenveen 0–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 8 March 2025PSV Eindhoven 2–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 14 December 2024Heerenveen 1–0 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
Leading scorers: PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen
PSV Eindhoven
GoalsAssists
- G. Til50
- S. Mijnans41
Heerenveen
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.