Roda vs Jong PSV U21 Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: Roda 1-1 Jong PSV U21.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Roda, 32% draw, 24% Jong PSV U21 — fair odds of 2.27, 3.13 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Roda at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Roda vs Jong PSV U21
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. TreichelG
- 3M. TolD
- 33D. Van den BuijsD
- 15L. BeertenD
- 14X. van den BergM
- 11D. DorenboschM
- 4J. NisbetM
- 5K. JansenM
- 8J. MensahM
- 25Bram MarsmanM
- 9A. van den HurkF
- 2Luuk VerheijM
- 7C. SeedorfF
- 10F. SchentenF
- 6M. PaulissenM
- 17Guilherme Martinho PeixotoD
- 32N. MaoujoudiM
- 24J. DéomM
- 19N. CrabuM
- 20M. BentoumiM
- 1T. SmolenaarsG
- 2L. OldenstamD
- 3M. BresserD
- 4F. MeriénD
- 5M. MonamayD
- 6B. MuldersM
- 10P. Holseter-KarlsenM
- 8S. SidibeM
- 7S. DumbiliF
- 9A. JonesF
- 11R. ManuhutuF
- 17J. BeerensF
- 18S DitmerD
- 16Stijn KuijstenG
- 23Eskil MoedtG
- 15K. PensoD
- 19Givenciyo SabajoM
- 14D. StamD
Form going into Roda vs Jong PSV U21
Roda
- L0-2away to VVV Venlo4 October 2026
- W2-0Waalwijk26 September 2026
- D0-0away to Jong Ajax18 September 2026
- W1-0Vitesse12 September 2026
Jong PSV U21
- L1-3away to Vitesse19 September 2026
- D1-1Jong AZ14 September 2026
- L1-3away to Helmond Sport11 September 2026
- W3-1Den Bosch7 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for Roda had two goals or fewer.
- Roda kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Jong PSV U21 scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Jong PSV U21 conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Jong PSV U21.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Roda | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 16 |
| 12 | Jong PSV U21 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Roda vs Jong PSV U21
- 6 March 2026Roda 0–2 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
- 15 September 2025Jong PSV U21 0–1 RodaEerste Divisie
- 18 July 2025Jong PSV U21 1–1 RodaFriendlies Clubs
- 7 March 2025Roda 2–1 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
- 9 December 2024Jong PSV U21 2–3 RodaEerste Divisie
- 2 August 2024Jong PSV U21 0–1 RodaFriendlies Clubs
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.