Jong AZ vs Den Bosch Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: Jong AZ 0-1 Den Bosch.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Jong AZ, 24% draw, 24% Den Bosch — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Jong AZ at 52% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Jong AZ vs Den Bosch
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1K. ZeggenG
- 2J. ZwartD
- 3A. NataliD
- 4F. AndersenD
- 5K. IngeD
- 6R. RobbemondM
- 8J. OeripM
- 7K. ToppenbergM
- 10H. de WitM
- 11Wassim bouzianeM
- 9Jerolldino ArmantradingF
- 21Julian SijbrandsM
- 19Gijs GrootM
- 18Bohdan BudkoM
- 15J. EsajasD
- 20J. HartogF
- 16I. KaG
- 14Mathijs MenuD
- 17Saviola Mourinho Simons SaffoeD
- 23J. SchipperG
- 1P. van de MerbelG
- 22Jeffry FortesD
- 25Silvan BrokerD
- 3S. MaasD
- 18H. EikelboomM
- 2S. BarglanM
- 11J. De VriesM
- 10Devon DecorteM
- 33M. LarosM
- 8K. MonzialoF
- 9S. Karlsson GrachF
- 31E. BijlsmaG
- 40I. BoumassaoudiF
- 55G. HesselsM
- 27L. HoffmanF
- 21F. MurreG
- 17E. SemedoF
- 16Wang BohaoM
- 54Jari De KruijffM
- 41K. de RooijD
Form going into Jong AZ vs Den Bosch
Jong AZ
- W4-1FC Volendam18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Jong PSV U2114 September 2026
- L2-3away to Heracles11 September 2026
- W6-3away to Dordrecht5 September 2026
Den Bosch
- D1-1Dordrecht3 October 2026
- L0-1away to De Graafschap27 September 2026
- W2-1Helmond Sport18 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Volendam13 September 2026
What these results say
- Jong AZ scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Jong AZ conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Jong AZ.
- Den Bosch conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Den Bosch failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Den Bosch had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Jong AZ | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 13 |
| 14 | Den Bosch | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Jong AZ vs Den Bosch
- 23 February 2026Jong AZ 2–2 Den BoschEerste Divisie
- 26 September 2025Den Bosch 2–3 Jong AZEerste Divisie
- 28 April 2025Jong AZ 0–0 Den BoschEerste Divisie
- 16 August 2024Den Bosch 6–0 Jong AZEerste Divisie
- 16 February 2024Den Bosch 0–0 Jong AZEerste Divisie
- 11 December 2023Jong AZ 0–0 Den BoschEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Jong AZ and Den Bosch
Jong AZ
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
Den Bosch
GoalsAssists
- S. Karlsson Grach40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.