Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: Jong Ajax 0-3 VVV Venlo.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Jong Ajax, 26% draw, 40% VVV Venlo — fair odds of 2.94, 3.85 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts VVV Venlo at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1C. SetfordG
- 2R. van de PavertD
- 3G. SpinaD
- 4M. MuzunguD
- 5Sinclair de FalcoD
- 6Jinairo JohnsonM
- 10Alejandro MonserrateM
- 8Mohamed AbdallaM
- 7Leo SalazarF
- 9E. ÜnüvarF
- 11P. NashF
- 16A. AppiahD
- 19A. CamaraM
- 12A. HaniG
- 24A. MoumaneF
- 22D. PugnoF
- 21J. SimeonF
- 23P. Da SilvaF
- 17M. van der LansD
- 25D. van der VaartM
- 13Y. SchoonderwaldtG
- 14Raf VullersD
- 4É. ClancyD
- 33G. BlancquartD
- 16P. HeiseD
- 8Ismail Oulad M'HandM
- 38Tristan SchenkhuizenM
- 7E. ZulianiM
- 24M. OdrissM
- 11N. Ait MouhouM
- 17L. SchmidtF
- 6A. VerstraetenM
- 35Yousri El AnbriM
- 22Zidane TaylanG
- 31M. DavisD
- 1T. DoornbuschG
- 21L. GörlichD
- 43D. HendrixF
- 19Thomas JanssenF
- 15Tijn JoostenD
Form going into Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo
Jong Ajax
- D0-0Roda18 September 2026
- L1-6away to Jong Utrecht14 September 2026
- L0-2Waalwijk11 September 2026
- W1-0away to Almere City FC4 September 2026
VVV Venlo
- W2-0Roda4 October 2026
- L2-3away to FC Volendam26 September 2026
- W3-1away to Jong Utrecht18 September 2026
- W3-1FC OSS11 September 2026
What these results say
- Jong Ajax failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Jong Ajax had two goals or fewer.
- VVV Venlo scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- VVV Venlo won 3 of these 4 matches.
- VVV Venlo conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jong Ajax | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 8 |
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo
- 17 March 2026VVV Venlo 0–1 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
- 26 September 2025Jong Ajax 2–4 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
- 7 March 2025VVV Venlo 1–0 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
- 1 November 2024Jong Ajax 0–1 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
- 3 May 2024VVV Venlo 2–0 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
- 6 October 2023Jong Ajax 3–0 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Jong Ajax and VVV Venlo
Jong Ajax
GoalsAssists
- D. Pugno52
- E. Ünüvar50
VVV Venlo
GoalsAssists
- E. Zuliani41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.