FC OSS vs Helmond Sport Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: FC OSS 3-1 Helmond Sport.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% FC OSS, 29% draw, 26% Helmond Sport — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC OSS at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC OSS vs Helmond Sport
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. HavekotteG
- 2I. PataD
- 3L. MiguelD
- 23D. VianelloD
- 26Julian KuijpersD
- 10R. van der VenneM
- 8M. EsajasM
- 11J. MathieuM
- 18K. LubranoF
- 19F. NsingiF
- 17M. HinokeF
- 24Jay KuiperD
- 25J. PansaF
- 16D. RemieG
- 9Andy VisserF
- 33L. ZonneveldD
- 27M. de LannoyF
- 5Jafar Howard BynoeM
- 21Thomas CoxD
- 12A. HenryD
- 1M. BergsenG
- 20S. DekkersD
- 4B. KoglinD
- 43T. LandheerD
- 5T. PollD
- 11L. CiceroM
- 6M. LudwigM
- 44Xander van der VeldeM
- 19H. IngasonM
- 9L. BajramiF
- 94Mauro LenaertsF
- 21Wessel van der HeijdenG
- 2R. van BreeD
- 3F. Van Den EyndenD
- 31N. MeissnerF
- 10D. HuibertsM
- 14Lovro GoličD
- 47Dayen GeertsM
- 23A. El MaachG
- 30K. EkoliF
Form going into FC OSS vs Helmond Sport
FC OSS
- W4-1MVV3 October 2026
- L0-1away to Emmen26 September 2026
- W3-0Dordrecht18 September 2026
- L1-3away to VVV Venlo11 September 2026
Helmond Sport
- D2-2Heracles2 October 2026
- L0-2away to MVV26 September 2026
- L1-2away to Den Bosch18 September 2026
- W3-1Jong PSV U2111 September 2026
What these results say
- FC OSS scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC OSS conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for FC OSS had three goals or more.
- Helmond Sport conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Helmond Sport failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Helmond Sport scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | FC OSS | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
| 17 | Helmond Sport | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC OSS vs Helmond Sport
- 6 March 2026Helmond Sport 1–1 FC OSSEerste Divisie
- 31 October 2025FC OSS 0–3 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 2 February 2025FC OSS 1–1 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 16 September 2024Helmond Sport 1–0 FC OSSEerste Divisie
- 15 March 2024FC OSS 1–0 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 15 September 2023Helmond Sport 1–1 FC OSSEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: FC OSS and Helmond Sport
FC OSS
GoalsAssists
- M. Hinoke50
- F. Nsingi42
Helmond Sport
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.