NAC Breda vs MVV Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: NAC Breda 1-0 MVV.
Before kick-off the model made it 65% NAC Breda, 22% draw, 13% MVV — fair odds of 1.54, 4.55 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NAC Breda at 65% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — NAC Breda vs MVV
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. VerripsG
- 2B. LucassenD
- 4L. GreimlD
- 22R. HillenD
- 12J. Van den BerghD
- 78J. Van HeckeM
- 6M. BalardM
- 14K. SowahM
- 10M. NassohM
- 28C. BrymM
- 11G. MisehouyF
- 35M. BrouwersD
- 5J. CandelariaD
- 19P. GladonF
- 33E. IkpiaF
- 23R. KortsmitG
- 31K. LamprouG
- 34I. NazihM
- 8F. Oldrup JensenM
- 26P. ReulenF
- 1H. WentgesG
- 25Yael LiesdekD
- 6F. DickeD
- 22Sven BoulandD
- 17S. WegenD
- 7L. DaneelsM
- 18E. SierraM
- 16R. KlaasenM
- 24N. El HamdaouiM
- 9T. VinogradacF
- 10O. DumontF
- 31Yanis BourardM
- 21D. AsanteF
- 20A. AmgarM
- 12S. van der HeijdenG
- 29O. ZimuanganaF
- 11T. VerheijenF
- 13S. TimmersG
- 27Naïm MatougF
- 19Mika LuijendijkM
Form going into NAC Breda vs MVV
NAC Breda
- D2-2away to Vitesse3 October 2026
- W4-2FC Eindhoven26 September 2026
- W2-1away to De Graafschap20 September 2026
- L2-3Jong Utrecht11 September 2026
MVV
- L1-4away to FC OSS3 October 2026
- W2-0Helmond Sport26 September 2026
- L1-6away to Waalwijk18 September 2026
- L0-4Almere City FC11 September 2026
What these results say
- NAC Breda scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- NAC Breda conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for NAC Breda had three goals or more.
- MVV failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- MVV scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- MVV conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | NAC Breda | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 17 |
| 7 | MVV | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: NAC Breda vs MVV
- 29 March 2024NAC Breda 1–2 MVVEerste Divisie
- 19 November 2023MVV 1–4 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
- 27 May 2023MVV 1–4 NAC BredaEredivisie
- 23 May 2023NAC Breda 1–0 MVVEredivisie
- 10 March 2023NAC Breda 4–1 MVVEerste Divisie
- 15 August 2022MVV 3–1 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: NAC Breda and MVV
NAC Breda
GoalsAssists
- C. Brym50
MVV
GoalsAssists
- O. Dumont51
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.