Heracles vs Waalwijk Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: Heracles 3-0 Waalwijk.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Heracles, 27% draw, 28% Waalwijk — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Heracles at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Heracles vs Waalwijk
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1F. de KeijzerG
- 2M. BenitaD
- 4D. MiraniD
- 14M. WruschD
- 25MannyD
- 5D. van der KustM
- 32S. SchepermanM
- 7C. AbbasM
- 17T. van GilstM
- 18M. HauswirthM
- 27J. N'djoliF
- 6D. TomićM
- 23M. te WierikD
- 26D. van KaamM
- 30D. van OorschotF
- 10T. BrunsM
- 3Mario BoracD
- 35S. BultmanD
- 8M. EngelsM
- 16T. JansinkG
- 1N. SchiksG
- 33F. Al MazyaniD
- 30J. de WijsD
- 4L. van GelderenD
- 55N. HeldD
- 8J. NapM
- 6L. PostmaM
- 7R. FageM
- 22T. van de LooM
- 93V. MisidjanM
- 9J. van de HaarF
- 13Xander MulderG
- 25N. BakboordD
- 24A. DkidakD
- 42B. KemmerenD
- 20Keyan VarelaF
- 16M. SpenkelinkG
- 27F. StokkersF
- 19H. van GemertF
- 18R. van HedelM
Form going into Heracles vs Waalwijk
Heracles
- D2-2away to Helmond Sport2 October 2026
- W2-0Vitesse26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Almere City FC18 September 2026
- W3-2Jong AZ11 September 2026
Waalwijk
- D1-1Emmen3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Roda26 September 2026
- W6-1MVV18 September 2026
- W2-0away to Jong Ajax11 September 2026
What these results say
- Heracles scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Heracles conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Waalwijk scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Waalwijk conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Waalwijk had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 12 | +19 | 25 |
| 9 | Waalwijk | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Heracles vs Waalwijk
- 2 August 2025Heracles 3–1 WaalwijkFriendlies Clubs
- 6 April 2025Waalwijk 0–0 HeraclesEredivisie
- 23 November 2024Heracles 2–2 WaalwijkEredivisie
- 5 May 2024Heracles 0–5 WaalwijkEredivisie
- 12 January 2024Waalwijk 1–2 HeraclesEredivisie
- 11 May 2022Waalwijk 2–0 HeraclesEredivisie
Leading scorers: Heracles and Waalwijk
Heracles
GoalsAssists
- J. N'djoli111
- T. van Gilst72
Waalwijk
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.