9 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Dordrecht vs Emmen Eerste Divisie prediction & result

M-Scores Stadion, Dordrecht
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Dordrecht 0-3 Emmen.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Dordrecht, 27% draw, 35% Emmen — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dordrecht at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dordrecht0%Draw1%Emmen99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

29'
⚽Jack Cooper Loveassist: Sybrand Veldhuis
A. Ouarghi
32'
42'
⚽Freddy Quispelassist: Jack Cooper Love
nicolas rossi
43'
Lorenzo Riccio
45+1'
45+1'
Jack Cooper Love
🔁Jurre van Akenout: Adil Lechkar
45'
🔁nicolas rossiout: Lucas Ayrton Román
45'
51'
Bryan Van Hove
63'
🔁Freddy Quispelout: Mustafa Abdullatif
🔁Martin Vetkalout: Siginho Gerardo
63'
🔁J. de Bieout: Robin van Asten
63'
71'
🔁Sybrand Veldhuisout: Daan Lambers
71'
🔁Bryan Van Hoveout: V Carus
82'
⚽Mustafa Abdullatifassist: Luca Everink
90+2'
🔁Alessandro Hojabrpourout: Joshua Mukeh
90+2'
🔁Michael Breijout: Chiel Sunder

Match stats — Dordrecht vs Emmen

53%Possession47%
6Shots7
3On target4
3Corners3
1.05xG1.25

Goals against chances

Dordrecht0 from 1.05 xGless than the chances were worth
Emmen3 from 1.25 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Dordrecht 4-2-3-1
  • 28T. CoremansG
  • 22J. van AkenD
  • 4J. PinasD
  • 3S. HenderikxD
  • 5C. MpanzuD
  • 8Senne VugtsM
  • 6L. RiccioM
  • 11N. RossiM
  • 21M. VetkalM
  • 10A. OuarghiM
  • 9J. de BieF
Substitutes
  • 44B. HardleyD
  • 29Siginho GerardoF
  • 51Lucas GardenierD
  • 2A. LechkarD
  • 15Y. M'BembaD
  • 16L. RománF
  • 23L. WoudenbergD
  • 18Robin van AstenM
  • 1Finn OldenstamG
Coach: Paul Nuijten
Emmen 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. KarssiesG
  • 24L. EverinkD
  • 25R. KongoloD
  • 3Y. Dede-LhommeD
  • 17B. Van HoveD
  • 21A. HojabrpourM
  • 7T. RheinM
  • 40S. VeldhuisM
  • 12F. QuispelM
  • 22M. BreijM
  • 9J. CooperF
Substitutes
  • 27J. HuijzerM
  • 23D. LambersF
  • 38Kevin NorderG
  • 33K. RoosG
  • 15C. SunderM
  • 26David TimmermanD
  • 4C. ØstergaardD
  • 2J. MukehD
  • 18V. CarusD
Coach: M. van Dam

Form going into Dordrecht vs Emmen

Dordrecht

  • D1-1away to Den Bosch3 October 2026
  • W3-2Almere City FC25 September 2026
  • L0-3away to FC OSS18 September 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Eindhoven11 September 2026

Emmen

  • D1-1away to Waalwijk3 October 2026
  • W1-0FC OSS26 September 2026
  • L1-3away to FC Eindhoven18 September 2026
  • L1-2De Graafschap11 September 2026

What these results say

  • Dordrecht conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Dordrecht failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Dordrecht scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Emmen scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Emmen failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Emmen conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Dordrecht102261327-148
4Emmen106132218+419

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dordrecht vs Emmen

  • 13 February 2026Dordrecht 1–0 EmmenEerste Divisie
  • 19 September 2025Emmen 2–0 DordrechtEerste Divisie
  • 28 February 2025Dordrecht 3–0 EmmenEerste Divisie
  • 9 August 2024Emmen 1–2 DordrechtEerste Divisie
  • 18 May 2024Dordrecht 0–1 EmmenEredivisie
  • 14 May 2024Emmen 2–2 DordrechtEredivisie

Leading scorers: Dordrecht and Emmen

Dordrecht

No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Emmen

GoalsAssists

  • F. Quispel71
  • J. Cooper63

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.