9 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht Eerste Divisie prediction & result

De Vijverberg, Doetinchem
Full time2 – 1

Final score: De Graafschap 2-1 Jong Utrecht.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% De Graafschap, 27% draw, 28% Jong Utrecht — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts De Graafschap at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

De Graafschap96%Draw4%Jong Utrecht0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
⚽Wessel Kooy
42'
Emmanuel Chigozie Owen
🔁Kaya Symonsout: Toivo Mero
45'
60'
🔁Jaygo van Ommerenout: Driss Laaouina
🔁Bjorn van Zijlout: gabriele finocchiaro
60'
🔁Jannes Luca·Wieckhoffout: Levi Schoppema
60'
60'
🔁Noa Malik Dundasout: Richie Omorowa
🔁Kyano Kwintout: Julian kania
72'
⚽Fedde De Jongassist: gabriele finocchiaro
74'
74'
🔁Massien Ghaddariout: tijn boggende den
⚽Julian kaniaassist: Nolan Martens
77'
🔁Mark Diemersout: Joran Hardeman
78'
80'
🔁Bjorn Menzoout: Donovan Afrifa
80'
🔁Emmanuel Chigozie Owenout: Levi Rietveld
Joran Hardeman
84'
Julian kania
88'
88'
Wessel Kooy

Match stats — De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht

54%Possession46%
16Shots18
5On target3
6Corners5
1.59xG1.6

Goals against chances

De Graafschap2 from 1.59 xGabout what the chances were worth
Jong Utrecht1 from 1.60 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

De Graafschap 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. WieggersG
  • 2J. WieckhoffD
  • 3R. BesselinkD
  • 15T. KokD
  • 16N. MartensD
  • 8D. WarmerdamM
  • 21K. SymonsM
  • 10F. de JongM
  • 23M. DiemersM
  • 7Bjorn van ZijlM
  • 40Kyano KwintF
Substitutes
  • 33R. JonkersG
  • 17N. KanindaF
  • 11T. MeroF
  • 22P. ReversonG
  • 5L. SchoppemaD
  • 28J. TriepM
  • 4J. HardemanD
  • 20Gabriele FinocchiaroM
  • 18Denzel EijkenM
Coach: T. Duivenvoorden
Jong Utrecht 4-3-3
  • 1M. EppinkG
  • 2Yousri SbaiD
  • 3J. SchuldesD
  • 14W. KooyD
  • 5Viggo PlantingaD
  • 6F. PohlM
  • 9N. DundasM
  • 8J. van OmmerenM
  • 11E. C. OwenF
  • 10Massien GhaddariF
  • 7Bjorn MenzoF
Substitutes
  • 20Tijn den BoggendeF
  • 32M. TsankovG
  • 21L. RietveldM
  • 19R. OmorowaF
  • 18D. LaaouinaM
  • 22Matyas HavelkaM
  • 16Kenji GoesM
  • 31Justin EversenG
  • 13A. AslaniM
Coach: Omar Rziki

Form going into De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht

De Graafschap

  • D2-2away to FC Eindhoven3 October 2026
  • W1-0Den Bosch27 September 2026
  • L1-2NAC Breda20 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Emmen11 September 2026

Jong Utrecht

  • L1-3VVV Venlo18 September 2026
  • W6-1Jong Ajax14 September 2026
  • W3-2away to NAC Breda11 September 2026
  • D0-0FC Eindhoven7 September 2026

What these results say

  • De Graafschap scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • De Graafschap conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for De Graafschap had three goals or more.
  • Jong Utrecht scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Jong Utrecht conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Jong Utrecht had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16De Graafschap103251323-1011
20Jong Utrecht102171623-77

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht

  • 20 February 2026De Graafschap 1–0 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
  • 8 December 2025Jong Utrecht 2–3 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
  • 20 January 2025Jong Utrecht 1–1 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
  • 23 August 2024De Graafschap 2–2 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
  • 3 May 2024De Graafschap 2–2 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
  • 24 November 2023Jong Utrecht 2–0 De GraafschapEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht

De Graafschap

GoalsAssists

  • J. Kania50

Jong Utrecht

GoalsAssists

  • E. C. Owen50

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.