9 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

FC Volendam vs Vitesse Eerste Divisie prediction & result

Kras Stadion, Volendam
Full time2 – 0

Final score: FC Volendam 2-0 Vitesse.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% FC Volendam, 28% draw, 23% Vitesse — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Volendam at 49% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Volendam99%Draw1%Vitesse0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
M. Steffen
11'
Pontus Dahbo
34'
Solomon Bonnah
⚽Luca Blondeauassist: Mike Kleijn
45+1'
🔁Alex Platout: Precious ugwu
62'
72'
🔁Filipe de Carvalho Ferreiraout: Nino Zonneveld
⚽Henk Veermanassist: Nick Doodeman
77'
78'
🔁Youssef Ouallilout: Alexander Büttner
78'
🔁Pontus Dahboout: Eduard·Probst
Precious ugwu
81'
86'
🔁Xiamaro thenuout: Koen Te Veluwe
87'
🔁Solomon Bonnahout: Yuval ranon
Mike Kleijn
88'
🔁Y. Jaber el Maftahiout: Mohammed Belfqih
89'
🔁Henk Veermanout: Frederik Ihler
90'

Match stats — FC Volendam vs Vitesse

61%Possession39%
8Shots18
3On target1
3Corners8
1.07xG1.25

Goals against chances

FC Volendam2 from 1.07 xGmore than the chances were worth
Vitesse0 from 1.25 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Volendam 4-3-3
  • 1H. JurjusG
  • 18N. BukalaD
  • 25Luca BlondeauD
  • 3M. AmevorD
  • 15M. KleijnD
  • 8D. HuismanM
  • 10R. NiemeijerM
  • 6A. PlatM
  • 7N. DoodemanF
  • 9H. VeermanF
  • 21Y. el MaftahiF
Substitutes
  • 5Dean BisschopsD
  • 34M. BelfqihM
  • 67F. IhlerF
  • 63J. HaakmatD
  • 17Miguel Opoku Agyemang
  • 12D. PayneD
  • 11Kayden WolffF
  • 16R. SteurG
  • 29Jesper TielemansF
Coach: E. van de Looi
Vitesse 4-2-3-1
  • 1C. van den BergG
  • 2S. BonnahD
  • 17V. ZumberiD
  • 55M. SteffenD
  • 22Xiamaro ThenuD
  • 6M. SchikoraM
  • 34Y. OuallilM
  • 20F. de CarvalhoM
  • 16P. DahboM
  • 21A. SelloufM
  • 9N. BannisF
Substitutes
  • 42Teun BoschM
  • 31M. BrullG
  • 28A. BüttnerD
  • 33M. MarschalkM
  • 13J. PintoF
  • 27E. ProbstF
  • 11Yuval RanonF
  • 23Jayden SieckerG
  • 7Nino ZonneveldF
Coach: R. Rehm

Form going into FC Volendam vs Vitesse

FC Volendam

  • L0-1away to Almere City FC3 October 2026
  • W3-2VVV Venlo26 September 2026
  • L1-4away to Jong AZ18 September 2026
  • W2-0Den Bosch13 September 2026

Vitesse

  • D2-2NAC Breda3 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Heracles26 September 2026
  • W3-1Jong PSV U2119 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Roda12 September 2026

What these results say

  • FC Volendam scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • FC Volendam conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Vitesse conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Vitesse failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8FC Volendam105052217+515
10Vitesse104241515014

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Volendam vs Vitesse

  • 17 January 2025FC Volendam 4–0 VitesseEerste Divisie
  • 4 October 2024Vitesse 1–2 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
  • 18 February 2024Vitesse 1–1 FC VolendamEredivisie
  • 11 August 2023FC Volendam 1–2 VitesseEredivisie
  • 18 February 2023FC Volendam 2–0 VitesseEredivisie
  • 17 September 2022Vitesse 1–1 FC VolendamEredivisie

Leading scorers: FC Volendam and Vitesse

FC Volendam

GoalsAssists

  • H. Veerman102
  • R. Niemeijer42

Vitesse

GoalsAssists

  • N. Bannis93

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.