10 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie prediction & result

De Kuip, Rotterdam
Referee: Danny Makkelie
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Feyenoord 2-0 AZ Alkmaar.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Feyenoord, 24% draw, 26% AZ Alkmaar — fair odds of 2.00, 4.17 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Feyenoord at 50% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Feyenoord99%Draw1%AZ Alkmaar0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
Lewis Schouten
⚽Nacho Ferri
13'
23'
Ro Zangelo Daal
43'
•Mexx Meerdink
Oussama Targhalline
45+2'
⚽Javi Lópezassist: Charles Vanhoutte
59'
67'
Wouter Goes
68'
🔁Ro Zangelo Daalout: Weslley Pinto Batista
68'
🔁Elijah Dijkstraout: Denso Kasius
🔁Gjivai Zechielout: Tobias van den Elshout
77'
80'
🔁Jordy Clasieout: Bendegúz Kovács
🔁Nacho Ferriout: Gaoussou Kyassou Diarra
89'

Match stats — Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar

43%Possession57%
15Shots12
4On target2
7Corners6
2.23xG1.04

Goals against chances

Feyenoord2 from 2.23 xGabout what the chances were worth
AZ Alkmaar0 from 1.04 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Feyenoord 4-3-3
  • 1T. ErnstG
  • 26G. ReadD
  • 6J. St. JusteD
  • 35Mika MàrmolD
  • 16Javi LópezD
  • 8G. ZechiëlM
  • 34C. VanhoutteM
  • 28O. TarghallineM
  • 23A. Hadj-MoussaF
  • 19Nacho FerriF
  • 10L. ValenteF
Substitutes
  • 20M. DeijlD
  • 36J. ZinhagelF
  • 27G. DiarraF
  • 33F. KastenmeierG
  • 24T. KraaijeveldM
  • 57J. SchakenF
  • 14S. SteijnM
  • 22T. van den ElshoutM
  • 39L. BossinG
Coach: G. van Bronckhorst
AZ Alkmaar 4-3-3
  • 28J. De BusserG
  • 22E. DijkstraD
  • 3W. GoesD
  • 4L. SchoutenD
  • 5M. ChávezD
  • 8J. ClasieM
  • 14C. StengsM
  • 6P. KoopmeinersM
  • 24A. OufkirF
  • 9M. MeerdinkF
  • 11R. DaalF
Substitutes
  • 7Weslley PatatiF
  • 45Jerolldino ArmantradingF
  • 27Wassim bouzianeF
  • 1R. Owusu-OduroG
  • 2S. MaikumaD
  • 21D. KwakmanM
  • 30D. KasiusD
  • 31R. IchiharaD
  • 29W. HoedtD
Coach: L. Echteld

Form going into Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar

Feyenoord

  • W5-0Utrecht20 September 2026
  • W7-0away to PEC Zwolle13 September 2026
  • W3-1away to NEC Nijmegen5 September 2026
  • D2-2ADO Den Haag30 August 2026

AZ Alkmaar

  • W1-0Telstar20 September 2026
  • D1-1Willem II11 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Heerenveen6 September 2026
  • W5-2GO Ahead Eagles29 August 2026

What these results say

  • Feyenoord went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Feyenoord scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Feyenoord had three goals or more.
  • AZ Alkmaar went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • AZ Alkmaar scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • AZ Alkmaar won 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Feyenoord8620277+2020
3AZ Alkmaar8611188+1019

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar

  • 10 October 2026Feyenoord 2–0 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
  • 10 May 2026Feyenoord 1–1 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
  • 21 September 2025AZ Alkmaar 3–3 FeyenoordEredivisie
  • 5 April 2025AZ Alkmaar 0–1 FeyenoordEredivisie
  • 2 November 2024Feyenoord 3–2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
  • 7 February 2024Feyenoord 2–0 AZ AlkmaarKNVB Beker

The full Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar record →

Leading scorers: Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar

Feyenoord

GoalsAssists

  • G. Zechiël54
  • Nacho Ferri51
  • A. Hadj-Moussa51

AZ Alkmaar

GoalsAssists

  • R. Daal40
  • M. Meerdink32

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.