PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: PEC Zwolle 0-1 Cambuur.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% PEC Zwolle, 24% draw, 36% Cambuur — fair odds of 2.50, 4.17 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts PEC Zwolle at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. SchendelaarG
- 3O. AertssenD
- 28S. GravesD
- 24N. ViergeverD
- 2S. FloranusD
- 30R. ThomasM
- 8T. SommerM
- 11D. MbayoM
- 25T. OostingM
- 22I. CissokoM
- 10K. KostonsF
- 34N. FichtingerM
- 6Jan BürgerD
- 9E. SørensenF
- 26Jadiel Pereira da GamaM
- 20G. ReizigerM
- 18O. VelanasM
- 4T. VelthuisD
- 41D. VerduinG
- 16T. de GraaffG
- 1T. JansenG
- 2D. BouahD
- 4I. BaoufD
- 14B. van DuijlD
- 28M. CostarelliD
- 17Ethan ApkakouM
- 8N. SourenM
- 15F. KvamM
- 10R. El ArguiouiM
- 11I. HamacheM
- 33M. MaertensF
- 6J. AmofaD
- 3J. BerkhoutD
- 13N. BinderF
- 7S. BouhoudaneF
- 29Iwan HenstraF
- 23L. JettenD
- 24M. KalisvaartG
- 27W. KooistraF
- 16R. MuldersD
Form going into PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur
PEC Zwolle
- L0-3away to Groningen18 September 2026
- L0-7Feyenoord13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Sparta Rotterdam4 September 2026
- L1-3NEC Nijmegen29 August 2026
Cambuur
- D1-1away to ADO Den Haag19 September 2026
- W3-0NEC Nijmegen12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Telstar6 September 2026
- L1-4Twente30 August 2026
What these results say
- PEC Zwolle did not win any of these 4 matches.
- PEC Zwolle conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for PEC Zwolle had three goals or more.
- Cambuur scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Cambuur failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Cambuur conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 4 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur
- 11 October 2026PEC Zwolle 0–1 CambuurEredivisie
- 22 July 2022PEC Zwolle 3–1 CambuurFriendlies Clubs
- 12 February 2022Cambuur 3–4 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 6 November 2021PEC Zwolle 1–2 CambuurEredivisie
- 24 July 2021PEC Zwolle 2–1 CambuurFriendlies Clubs
- 1 August 2020Cambuur 2–0 PEC ZwolleFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: PEC Zwolle and Cambuur
PEC Zwolle
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Cambuur
GoalsAssists
- R. El Arguioui40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.