Telstar vs ADO Den Haag Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Telstar 2-2 ADO Den Haag.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Telstar, 27% draw, 24% ADO Den Haag — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Telstar at 49% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Telstar vs ADO Den Haag
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. KoemanG
- 3Gerald AldersD
- 16S. ValkD
- 4A. SoualhiaD
- 43M. PeersmanD
- 23N. ShenkmanM
- 10T. OwusuM
- 17N. RossenM
- 7Rui MendesF
- 9Jelani SeedorfF
- 27P. BrouwerF
- 6Isaiah AhmedM
- 18G. CaschiliD
- 8E. DemircanF
- 2J. HardeveldD
- 14H. KusterM
- 42A. MarthaD
- 13Finn MulderG
- 28R. OudstenD
- 20D. ReizigerG
- 1K. NikiémaG
- 5J. Jensen-AbbewD
- 3P. MulderD
- 4M. WaemD
- 15M. HokkeD
- 24Alejandro PozoM
- 25J. KiloM
- 33M. ŠínM
- 17J. HawkinsM
- 46Y. EduardoF
- 11E. RottierF
- 8J. ŽambůrekM
- 77D. BárányF
- 22L. WilhelmD
- 7D. van MieghemF
- 27N. ThomasF
- 23N. ThiedeG
- 18S. SyllaD
- 2O. RaterinkD
- 14M. JiménezM
Form going into Telstar vs ADO Den Haag
Telstar
- L0-1away to AZ Alkmaar20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Heerenveen13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Twente9 September 2026
- D2-2Cambuur6 September 2026
ADO Den Haag
- D1-1Cambuur19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Twente12 September 2026
- L2-3Fortuna Sittard6 September 2026
- D2-2away to Feyenoord30 August 2026
What these results say
- Telstar did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Telstar failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Telstar conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- ADO Den Haag did not win any of these 4 matches.
- ADO Den Haag conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- ADO Den Haag scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Telstar vs ADO Den Haag
- 11 October 2026Telstar 2–2 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
- 17 May 2025ADO Den Haag 0–1 TelstarEredivisie
- 13 May 2025Telstar 2–0 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
- 11 April 2025Telstar 1–1 ADO Den HaagEerste Divisie
- 20 September 2024ADO Den Haag 1–1 TelstarEerste Divisie
- 15 March 2024Telstar 3–1 ADO Den HaagEerste Divisie
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.