11 October 2026, 10:15 UTC

Utrecht vs Willem II Eredivisie prediction & result

Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht
Referee: Jannick van der Laan
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Utrecht 3-1 Willem II.

Before kick-off the model made it 62% Utrecht, 21% draw, 17% Willem II — fair odds of 1.61, 4.76 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Utrecht at 62% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Utrecht97%Draw3%Willem II0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Yoann Cathline
45'
⚽Yoann Cathlineassist: Dani De Wit
53'
60'
⚽Jaden Sloryassist: Vito van Crooy
🔁Arthur Zagreout: Per Kloosterboer
68'
🔁Niklas Vesterlundout: Ángel Alarcón
68'
72'
🔁Jaden Sloryout: Eser Gürbüz
72'
🔁Tonny Vilhenaout: Anass Zarrouk
⚽Yoann Cathlineassist: Oualid Agougil
75'
Nikolas Panagiotou
80'
81'
🔁Vito van Crooyout: Thomas Verheydt
81'
🔁Nathan Tjoe-A-Onout: Alessandro Ciranni
🔁Marius Broholmout: Adrian Blake
82'
🔁Oualid Agougilout: Davy Van Den Berg
82'
87'
🔁Uriël van Aalstout: Chido Obi
⚽Ángel Alarcónassist: Adrian Blake
90+2'
🔁Yoann Cathlineout: S. van Duijn
90+3'

Match stats — Utrecht vs Willem II

58%Possession42%
24Shots9
6On target2
7Corners3
1.38xG0.66

Goals against chances

Utrecht3 from 1.38 xGmore than the chances were worth
Willem II1 from 0.66 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Utrecht 3-4-3
  • 1V. BarkasG
  • 2S. HoremansD
  • 3M. DiddenD
  • 5N. PanagiotouD
  • 23N. VesterlundM
  • 8J. van OvereemM
  • 38O. AgougilM
  • 92A. ZagréM
  • 80M. BroholmF
  • 20D. de WitF
  • 10Y. CathlineF
Substitutes
  • 11Ángel AlarcónF
  • 39N. AmrabatF
  • 15A. BlakeF
  • 33K. GadellaaG
  • 32P. KloosterboerD
  • 18J. MedićD
  • 6G. OfferhausD
  • 21N. Ogidi NwankwoD
  • 22S. PadtG
Coach: A. Correia
Willem II 4-2-3-1
  • 26M. DelangheG
  • 5H. ter AvestD
  • 3F. StamD
  • 23M. DekkerD
  • 24N. Tjoe-A-OnD
  • 6C. TwigtM
  • 52T. VilhenaM
  • 7J. SloryM
  • 19Uriel van AalstM
  • 32V. van CrooijM
  • 9D. HaenF
Substitutes
  • 15A. Et-TaïbiD
  • 50E. GürbüzF
  • 83M. LemmensD
  • 14Jens MathijsenD
  • 17O. MartinF
  • 10J. SchuurmanM
  • 28T. VerheydtF
  • 18Anass ZarroukM
  • 31K. de LeeuwG
Coach: J. Stegeman

Form going into Utrecht vs Willem II

Utrecht

  • L0-5away to Feyenoord20 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Excelsior13 September 2026
  • D3-3GO Ahead Eagles8 September 2026
  • L1-6PSV Eindhoven30 August 2026

Willem II

  • L0-1Fortuna Sittard19 September 2026
  • L1-5away to Ajax15 September 2026
  • D1-1away to AZ Alkmaar11 September 2026
  • L0-3Excelsior5 September 2026

What these results say

  • Utrecht conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Utrecht had three goals or more.
  • Utrecht failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Willem II did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Willem II conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Utrecht82241425-118
18Willem II8026723-162

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Utrecht vs Willem II

  • 11 October 2026Utrecht 3–1 Willem IIEredivisie
  • 9 March 2025Willem II 2–3 UtrechtEredivisie
  • 21 September 2024Utrecht 3–2 Willem IIEredivisie
  • 15 May 2022Willem II 3–0 UtrechtEredivisie
  • 31 October 2021Utrecht 5–1 Willem IIEredivisie
  • 1 May 2021Utrecht 3–2 Willem IIEredivisie

The full Utrecht vs Willem II record →

Leading scorers: Utrecht and Willem II

Utrecht

GoalsAssists

  • Artem Stepanov50

Willem II

No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.