Rennes vs Auxerre Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Rennes 4-1 Auxerre.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Rennes, 24% draw, 24% Auxerre — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rennes at 52% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rennes vs Auxerre
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30B. SambaG
- 14B. ReynoldsD
- 4C. CresswellD
- 24A. RouaultD
- 18M. NagidaD
- 28A. ThomassonM
- 21V. RongierM
- 45M. CamaraM
- 11Mousa TamariF
- 9E. LepaulF
- 90I. SoumaréF
- 95P. FrankowskiM
- 17S. SzymańskiM
- 16N. LemaîtreG
- 12Eliezer MayendaF
- 48A. Ait BoudlalD
- 10L. BlasF
- 6D. CisséM
- 22B. DiaF
- 65H. Do MarcolinoF
- 23M. DiopG
- 46A. PiedfortD
- 4A. TuanzebeD
- 92C. AkpaD
- 27L. SyM
- 8N. AhamadaM
- 5K. DanoisM
- 22F. OppegårdM
- 21R. FaivreM
- 10D. NamasoM
- 9C. ArcherF
- 34L. DioubateM
- 17P. EkwahM
- 47Youssef KhouddaF
- 3R. Labeau LascaryF
- 35E. LegrosD
- 1P. NardiG
- 77Aristide ZossouM
- 45Salimou DanfakhaD
- 20S. DiomandéD
Form going into Rennes vs Auxerre
Rennes
- L0-4away to Lyon19 September 2026
- W1-0Marseille11 September 2026
- W2-1away to Angers6 September 2026
- W3-2Le Mans30 August 2026
Auxerre
- W2-1Stade Brestois 2920 September 2026
- W1-0Nice12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Lyon4 September 2026
- L1-3Angers29 August 2026
What these results say
- Rennes won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Rennes scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Rennes conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Auxerre scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Auxerre conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Auxerre had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rennes vs Auxerre
- 11 October 2026Rennes 4–1 AuxerreLigue 1
- 22 February 2026Auxerre 0–3 RennesLigue 1
- 19 October 2025Rennes 2–2 AuxerreLigue 1
- 6 April 2025Rennes 0–1 AuxerreLigue 1
- 3 November 2024Auxerre 4–0 RennesLigue 1
- 11 March 2023Auxerre 0–0 RennesLigue 1
Leading scorers: Rennes and Auxerre
Rennes
GoalsAssists
- E. Lepaul40
- A. Thomasson22
Auxerre
GoalsAssists
- C. Archer40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.